Major European PMI Manufacturing remain subdued; Italian unemployment improves while eurozone hits fresh EMU record high of 12%
Notes/Observations
RBA leaves rates at 3.00% as expected. Still sees scope to cut further, but removed the reference to substantial easing of policy as a result of previous decisions in the pipeline.
Nikkei225 at one-month lows, as JPY continued retracement from recent lows.
Cyprus stock exchange reopens after extended holiday (Note: Bank reopened last Thursday)
Spain Net Unemployment change registers first decline since December.
European Manufacturing PMI generally disappoints but France, Germany and eurozone show slight improvement from preliminary readings.
Italy Unemployment Rate better than expected, rebounds from 20-year highs.
Eurozone Unemployment hits 12% for fresh EMU record high.
USD/CNY tests below 6.20 level for fresh 19-year highs for the Chinese currency.
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves key rates unchanged (as expected;) Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo expected unchanged at 5.50% (7th straight pause)
(AU) Australia Mar RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 87.9% v 87.9 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -7.5% v -6.5% prior.
(IE) Ireland Mar NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 v 51.5 prior (first contraction since Feb 2012)
(SE) Sweden Mar Swedbank PMI Survey: 52.1 v 50.6e
(ES) Spain Mar Net Unemployment M/M: -5.0K v +30.0Ke (first decline since December)
(DK) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.0% prior.
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Saxony M/M: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prior.
(PL) Poland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 v 48.7e
(HU) Hungary Mar PMI Survey: 55.7 v 54.0 prior.
(EU) ECB: €1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €368.0M prior; €144.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €145.0B prior.
(ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 44.2 v 46.2e (23rd straight contraction)
(CZ) Czech Republic Mar Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 49.9 prior.
(CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 50.4e (1st contraction in three months)
(IT) Italy Mar PMI Manufacturing: 44.5 v 45.3e (20th straight contraction and lowest reading since Aug 2012)
(FR) France Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.0 v 43.9e (3-month high but 13th straight reading in contraction territory.
(DE) Germany Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 48.9e (lowest reading since December)
(EU) Euro Zone Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.8 v 46.6e (20th straight monthly contraction)
(IT) Italy Feb Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.8%e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior.
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Hesse M/M: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior.
(UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 48.7e (second straight contraction)
(HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 22.7% v 17.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 21.9% v 14.7%e
(UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit: £0.6B v £0.4Be; Net Lending: £0.9B v £0.4Be
(UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 51.7K v 53.7Ke
(UK) Feb M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.5% v +0.9% prior' Y/Y: +0.5% v -0.8% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.1% v 5.0%e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6% prior.
(DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 52.5 v 60.3 prior.
(EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.0%e (fresh EMU record high)
(ZA) South Africa Mar Kagiso PMI: 49.3 v 52.8e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3% prior.
(BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.2% prior.
Fixed Income:
(ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2041 and 2048 Bonds.
(EU) ECB allotted €124.9B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%
(CH) Switzerland sold CHF946.2M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.127% v -0.123%
(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; avg yield: 4.72% v 4.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 1.70x prior.
(BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell total €3.02B in 3-month and 6-month Bills.
Sold €1.406B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.027% v 0.044% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.62x v 2.49x prior.
Sold €1.61B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield 0.050% v 0.067% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.32x prior.
(NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total €2.59B vs. €2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month Bills.
Sold €1.27B vs. €2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.025% v -0.025% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.53x v 3.51x prior.
Sold €1.32B vs. €2.0B indicated in 9-month Bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.013% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.86x v 2.35x prior.
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,465, DAX +0.60% at 7,845, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,751, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 7,900, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,293, SMI +0.60% at 7,855, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,560.
European equity markets are trading mixed, following the two day holiday break. Equities in Spain and Italy have underperformed, amid the release of disappointing PMI manufacturing data. The FTSE 100 has outperformed on gains in shares of Vodafone. In Cyprus, the equity market has declined by over 1.5%, after being closed for two weeks. Banks are trading mixed. Laggards in the sector include BBVA and UniCredit. Resource related firms are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. Key event risks for later in the week include central bank monetary policy decisions (BoJ, BoE and ECB) and US non-farm payrolls data.
U.K. movers [Vodafone +3.5% (renewed speculation related to stake in Verizon Wireless), Stobart +2% (raised guidance), Bowleven +2% (gas find)]
Germany movers [E.ON +2.5% (broker commentary), GEA Group +2% (broker commentary); ThyssenKrupp -1% (concerns related to sale of Brazilianplant)]
France movers [Zodiac +2.5% (H1 sales above ests) ;Alstom -2.3% (broker commentary)]
Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi -5% (FY loss wider than ests)]
Notes/Observations
RBA leaves rates at 3.00% as expected. Still sees scope to cut further, but removed the reference to substantial easing of policy as a result of previous decisions in the pipeline.
Nikkei225 at one-month lows, as JPY continued retracement from recent lows.
Cyprus stock exchange reopens after extended holiday (Note: Bank reopened last Thursday)
Spain Net Unemployment change registers first decline since December.
European Manufacturing PMI generally disappoints but France, Germany and eurozone show slight improvement from preliminary readings.
Italy Unemployment Rate better than expected, rebounds from 20-year highs.
Eurozone Unemployment hits 12% for fresh EMU record high.
USD/CNY tests below 6.20 level for fresh 19-year highs for the Chinese currency.
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves key rates unchanged (as expected;) Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo expected unchanged at 5.50% (7th straight pause)
(AU) Australia Mar RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 87.9% v 87.9 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -7.5% v -6.5% prior.
(IE) Ireland Mar NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 v 51.5 prior (first contraction since Feb 2012)
(SE) Sweden Mar Swedbank PMI Survey: 52.1 v 50.6e
(ES) Spain Mar Net Unemployment M/M: -5.0K v +30.0Ke (first decline since December)
(DK) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.0% prior.
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Saxony M/M: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prior.
(PL) Poland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 v 48.7e
(HU) Hungary Mar PMI Survey: 55.7 v 54.0 prior.
(EU) ECB: €1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €368.0M prior; €144.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €145.0B prior.
(ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 44.2 v 46.2e (23rd straight contraction)
(CZ) Czech Republic Mar Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 49.9 prior.
(CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 50.4e (1st contraction in three months)
(IT) Italy Mar PMI Manufacturing: 44.5 v 45.3e (20th straight contraction and lowest reading since Aug 2012)
(FR) France Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.0 v 43.9e (3-month high but 13th straight reading in contraction territory.
(DE) Germany Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 48.9e (lowest reading since December)
(EU) Euro Zone Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.8 v 46.6e (20th straight monthly contraction)
(IT) Italy Feb Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.8%e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior.
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Hesse M/M: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior.
(UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 48.7e (second straight contraction)
(HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 22.7% v 17.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 21.9% v 14.7%e
(UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit: £0.6B v £0.4Be; Net Lending: £0.9B v £0.4Be
(UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 51.7K v 53.7Ke
(UK) Feb M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.5% v +0.9% prior' Y/Y: +0.5% v -0.8% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.1% v 5.0%e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6% prior.
(DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 52.5 v 60.3 prior.
(EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.0%e (fresh EMU record high)
(ZA) South Africa Mar Kagiso PMI: 49.3 v 52.8e
(DE) Germany Mar CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3% prior.
(BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.2% prior.
Fixed Income:
(ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2041 and 2048 Bonds.
(EU) ECB allotted €124.9B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%
(CH) Switzerland sold CHF946.2M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.127% v -0.123%
(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; avg yield: 4.72% v 4.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 1.70x prior.
(BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell total €3.02B in 3-month and 6-month Bills.
Sold €1.406B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.027% v 0.044% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.62x v 2.49x prior.
Sold €1.61B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield 0.050% v 0.067% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.32x prior.
(NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total €2.59B vs. €2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month Bills.
Sold €1.27B vs. €2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.025% v -0.025% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.53x v 3.51x prior.
Sold €1.32B vs. €2.0B indicated in 9-month Bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.013% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.86x v 2.35x prior.
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,465, DAX +0.60% at 7,845, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,751, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 7,900, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,293, SMI +0.60% at 7,855, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,560.
European equity markets are trading mixed, following the two day holiday break. Equities in Spain and Italy have underperformed, amid the release of disappointing PMI manufacturing data. The FTSE 100 has outperformed on gains in shares of Vodafone. In Cyprus, the equity market has declined by over 1.5%, after being closed for two weeks. Banks are trading mixed. Laggards in the sector include BBVA and UniCredit. Resource related firms are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. Key event risks for later in the week include central bank monetary policy decisions (BoJ, BoE and ECB) and US non-farm payrolls data.
U.K. movers [Vodafone +3.5% (renewed speculation related to stake in Verizon Wireless), Stobart +2% (raised guidance), Bowleven +2% (gas find)]
Germany movers [E.ON +2.5% (broker commentary), GEA Group +2% (broker commentary); ThyssenKrupp -1% (concerns related to sale of Brazilianplant)]
France movers [Zodiac +2.5% (H1 sales above ests) ;Alstom -2.3% (broker commentary)]
Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi -5% (FY loss wider than ests)]