Euro Bullish Bets Jump To Record High

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

USD COT Futures Large Trader Positions

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -7,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, August 25th. This was a weekly change of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,515 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -5,005 contracts (to a weekly total of 13,582 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser fall by -4,747 contracts on the week (to a total of 21,355 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators slightly added to their bearish bets this week for the second time in three weeks and for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. The bearish position has now been above the -7,500 net contract level for three straight weeks. Overall, the dollar position has continued to remain in bearish territory for eleven consecutive weeks, dating back to June 16th.

Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bets jump to record high

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators' category this week as the euro hit another milestone.

Euro positions jumped higher once again this week and hit a new all-time bullish record high. The euro speculator positions have continued to surge higher with new record highs in five out of the past six weeks. Speculators have also pushed their bullish bets higher in seven out of the past eight weeks as well as twenty-one out of the past twenty-six weeks. The euro net contracts have gained by a total of +112,797 contracts in just the past eight weeks to settle this week above the +200,000 net contract level for the first time in history. The EURUSD currency pair has continued to strengthen and this week closed above the 1.1900 exchange rate with a test of the 1.20 level looking likely.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (14,809 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (3,032 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,269 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (426 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-258 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-904 contracts), Swiss franc (-2,641 contracts), Australian dollar (-599 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-476 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

Current Strength Of Each Currency

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

Table Of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO COT Futures Large Trader Positions

Euro large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 211,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,943 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

GBP COT Futures Large Trader Positions

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of 5,600 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly decline of -904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,504 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

JPY COT Futures Large Trader Positions

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of 23,616 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly boost of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,584 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

CHF COT Futures Large Trader Positions

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,866 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,507 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

CAD COT Futures Large Trader Positions

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of -29,318 contracts this week. This was a boost of 4,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,587 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

AUD COT Futures Large Trader Positions

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures resulted in a net position of -3,899 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,300 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

NZD COT Futures Large Trader Positions

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing was a net position of 4,188 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly boost of 426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,762 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

MXN COT Futures Large Trader Positions

Mexican peso speculators recorded a net position of 3,862 contracts this week. This was a weekly lowering of -476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,338 net contracts.