EUR/NOK has been consolidating in the 9.639-9.639 range since Thursday, marked by the low and the high of Wednesday.
Overall, the pair trades below the downside resistance line taken from the high of Aug. 20, and thus, we maintain a negative stance in the near term.
However, to start examining a trend continuation, we would like to see a dip below 9.639. This will confirm a forthcoming lower low on both the 4-hour and daily charts and could initially pave the way towards the 9.554 zone, marked by the low of April 22, 2019.
If the bears don't stop there either, we could see more significant downside extensions, perhaps towards the low of Oct. 16, 2018, at around 9.417.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI lies flat fractionally below its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, is still slightly above its trigger line.
Both oscillators suggest that the rate is running out of downside momentum. We would wait for a dip below 9.639 before we get more confident about the downside.
To abandon the bearish case, we would like to see a recovery back above the 9.968 barrier, marked by the high of Oct. 7.
Such a move could signal a break above the downside line taken from the high of Aug. 20 and encourage the bulls to aim for the 10.040 zone, marked by the high of Oct. 4.
Another break above 10.040 could target the inside swing low of Sept. 30, at 10.107, the break of which could allow extensions towards the peak of Sept. 30, at 10.225.