Yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes demonstrated the Fed's hawkish mood as far as a march rate hike is concerned. Nevertheless, the minutes failed to support the US dollar.
The EUR/USD was decreasing to 1.0493 before noon, but in the afternoon restored its positions and tested the maximum of 1.0573. EUR was supported by political factors. François Bayrou withdrew from the presidential race in favor of another candidate, Emmanuel Macron, increasing the chance of the last-named to become president. Investors consider this fact to be euro positive, as Macron is pro EU. If Marine Le Pen wins, vice versa, it will be a negative factor for euro, as Le Pen favors the idea of France leaving the EU. Today, market actors will turn their attention to the publication of data on initial jobless claims (15:30 GMT+2). It is forecasted that the indicator will grow to 241 thousand from 239 thousand a week ago. If this assumption is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.
On the H4 chart, the rate has been corrected within the middle line of Bollinger® Bands (1.0573). Breakout of the level of 1.0573 will indicate formation of the upward trend.
If consolidating above this level fails, the reversal of the trend and another testing of the 1.0493 level are expected. Breakdown of the level of 1.0493 will open a gate to 1.0453 for the pair.
- Support levels: 1.0528, 1.0493, 1.0453.
- Resistance levels: 1.0573, 1.0615, 1.0677.