EUR/USD is still boosted by optimism aroused by Macron leading polls on grinding French Elections. The pair couldn't overpass the 1.0950 mount for the second consecutive daily sessions, but yesterday the pair lost 95-pips as markets were anticipating the so long waited Trump's Tax Plan and upon delivery, analysts showed a repel with the details claiming that such proposal will lead to U.S trade deficit. As a result, the pair recovered from 1.0855 low, reclaimed the 1.09 level closing at 1.0903.
Today, the pair traded with shy volatility compared to previous days, confined with 25-pips price action, currently at 1.0918 with bullish momentum signaling for additional gains as the U.S Index retreated to 98.69 low, only 11-pips above yesterday's 2017-lows. EUR/USD volatility should re-kick as hours narrows down to ECB interest rates and expectation are above 90% to leave rates at current taking into consideration the coming French Elections.
Traders already know that, which leaves the ball centered on Draghi's press conference, followed shortly by ECB Interest Rate decision. Recent appearances of Draghi, head of European Central Bank, shows that Mr. Draghi favors lower euro, expectations for dovish tone are high with details about QE bond purchasing. This comes at the same time of U.S releasing major economic events, and in case of negative outcome, market might witness the old glorious levels for EUR/USD before the Brexit and vice versa.
Fundamentals:
1- EUR - ECB interest Rate Decision today at 12:30 PM GMT.
2- EUR - Draghi Press Conference today at 12:45 PM GMT.
3- USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.
Technical Overview:
Trend: Bullish Sideways
Resistance levels: R1 1.0960, R2 1.1055, R3 1.1126
Support levels: S1 1.0850, S2 1.0778, S3 1.0705
Comment : Keep focused on Draghi's speech specially on QE purchasing program. U.S data is vital today settling the rift between USD&EUR. Spikes will fight R1 (Wednesday's and Tuesday's highs) but in case of penetration, the pair could witness intensive inclines towards R2 level. Closing above 1.0824 is positive. Closing below S2 (Monday's opening gap) will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3 level with a reminder of passive bearish trend. EUR/USD to be considered bearish if market close below S2 level.