The NASDAQ futures weighed on stocks, but the broad market is marching on.
From a historical perspective, this week is not the time to be a stock market bear. The market generally likes to move higher into Fed meetings and quarterly futures expiration also tends to put upward pressure on pricing. This is true, at least until the Friday morning Triple Witch. From there, things sometimes turn sour. Thus, the ES bears will likely have better entry points in the coming sessions if they are patient.
We've also heard chatter about a Bradley turn date occurring on the 20th of this month, and others are noting June 26th as a potential reversal date based on moon cycles. We don't normally pay attention to these types of things, but the fact that they coincidentally appear to be in line with the charts make them at least worth noting.
ZB and ZN Futures
The Fed will likely raise rates and stocks will likely grind higher...bonds should retreat.
The financial markets are expecting the Fed to raise overnight borrowing rates by a quarter point this week and we can't imagine a scenario in which they don't. Thus, we could be setting up for a sell the rumor and buy the fact type of trade. We suspect Treasuries will continue to drift lower into the Fed meeting.
We also believe the S&P 500 will likely grind higher into week's end, if so it will be difficult to justify any buying in "risk-off" assets. Nonetheless, should the long bond get into the 151ish area, we'll likely get interested in playing the upside.
Treasury Futures Market Analysis
**Bond Futures Market Consensus:** Bonds and notes will likely go into correction mode. If so, we will be looking for 151'0 in the ZB and about 125'11 in the ZN.
**Technical Support:** ZB : 153'03, 151'25, 151'01, 150'07, and 148'25 ZN: 126'02, 125'11 and 124'08
**Technical Resistance:** ZB: 155'07 and 157'12 ZN: 126'24 and 127'06
ES and NQ Futures
Friday's intraday 30 point slide negated the overbought status. New highs in the ES?
The chaos seen in Friday's session saw the ES quickly tumble 30 points after posting a new all-time high. Although the move was fast and took place in a single trading session (even a single afternoon), it was a legitimate correction. Accordingly, the market is not overbought and the momentum is still higher. We suspect the ES will be looking for new highs in the coming trading sessions.
Those trying to place the downside in this market should be able to withstand a move into the mid-2450s. For smaller traders this might mean holding off establishing a position until such prices are seen. Those trading larger accounts and multiple lots it might want to keep trades at a "nibble" with the intention of getting more aggressive at the noted level. In any case, the path of least resistance is higher in the short-run but we will consider turning bearish near 2455.
Stock Index Futures Market Ideas
**e-mini S&P Futures Market Consensus:**
We like being bears on rallies. Look for resistance near 2249/2455.
**Technical Support:** 2414, 2395, 2365, 2345, 2337, and 2325
**Technical Resistance:** 2445 2455, and 2473
e-mini S&P Futures Day Trading Ideas
**These are counter-trend entry ideas, the more distant the level the more reliable but the less likely to get filled**
ES Day Trade Sell Levels: 2445, 2451, and 2456
ES Day Trade Buy Levels: 2428(minor), 2415, 2403, 2393, and 2386
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