Friday gapped down and triggered a minor sell signal on the daily chart. The daily chart was a wedge rally to just below the March high.
The weekly chart has a small wedge rally and a big double top. Last week was a perfect doji bar on the weekly chart, and therefore a weak sell signal bar. The bears want this week to trade below last week’s low to trigger the sell. However, the prior 2 weeks were big bull bars. Hence, the bears will need at least a couple big bear bars before traders will believe that the bears have regained control.
Furthermore, June 26 – July 5 is one of the more reliable bullish times of the year. This implies that the Emini often sells off a little before June 26. This week might be the start of this seasonal pattern.
The Emini is down 17 points in the Globex market. It might therefor gap below last week’s low and trigger a sell signal on the weekly chart. Consequently, there is an increased chance of a bear trend day today. Furthermore, there is also an increased chance of a bull trend day whenever the bears try for a bear breakout. The past 2 weeks have spent a lot of time in trading ranges on the 5 minute chart. Because of the location and chart patterns on the daily and weekly charts, there is an increased chance of a trend day today.
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.
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