E-mini pre-open market analysis
E-mini daily chart
Friday triggered a High 1 buy signal, which is where the E-mini closed. Since closing Friday just below the all-time high, in a wedge rally test, it might gap up to a new all-time high today. E-mini was unable to break out on Friday to an all-time high, so it is possible a double top with the May 7 high could occur.
Bears need a strong reversal down from here, or from a failed breakout above the May high. If a breakout above the May high reverses down this week, there will be a wedge top with the May 14 and June 1 highs. A wedge rally to a double top is a reasonable sell signal, but most reversals fail, so only buy a bull breakout on the daily chart for a swing trade. Until there is a clear, strong reversal down, traders will continue to expect new highs.
Overnight E-mini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- Up 3 points in Globex session, but just below the May 7 all-time high, so might gap up and go to a new high today. There would then be a gap up on the weekly chart as well.
- If there is a gap up, it will probably be small. Small gaps typically close in the 1st hour.
- Since the E-mini is at the top of a 2-month trading range, it is in Breakout Mode. It is now testing the top of the range, and there is therefore an increased chance of a strong trend day up or down.
- Friday was a buy climax day, and so there is a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading, that starts by the end of the second hour.
- If today is going to be a trend day, there will probably be a series of strong trend bars in the first hour.
- If today is a bull trend day, and it breaks above the May high, there is an increased chance of a midday reversal down, since breakouts in general fail half the time.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Disclaimer: Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.