The Emini had another trading range day yesterday. Its high was below Tuesday high, and therefore yesterday is a High 1 bull flag. But, yesterday had a bear body and is therefore a weak buy signal bar.
In addition, the 60 minute chart still has a parabolic wedge top at a measured move target. Hence, the odds favor at least a little more pullback before the bull trend resumes. This is true even if today trades above yesterday’s high.
A major reversal down is unlikely to begin within the next few days. More likely, there will be a test of the all-time high within a few weeks. There is a 30% chance of it coming within a week.
The Emini is up 3 points in the Globex market. After the parabolic wedge rally to a measured move target on the 60 minute chart, the odds favor a longer pullback. In addition, the past 2 days were trading range days. That increases the odds for another one today.
Furthermore, Tuesday’s triangle on the 5 minute chart is a magnet below. Other important magnets below are the 60 minute EMA and the July 25 high, which is a breakout point. All are around the 2850 Big Round Number. Therefore, day traders will look to sell rallies. This is true even if today goes above yesterday’s high.
Once the pullback reaches that support around 2850, the bulls will begin to look for a reversal up. That could lead to one or more bull trend days and a resumption of the rally up to a new all-time high.
Can the 60 minute parabolic wedge top lead to a bear trend reversal down to last week’s low at around 2800? Yes, but there is a 70% chance of another leg up to at least a little above Tuesday’s high 1st.
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.
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