The S&P 500 E-mini futures double top tested close to the June 2 high. Bears want an E-mini double top bear flag, but the small bull bar on the weekly chart is a weak sell signal bar for next week. The move up since July 14 is fairly strong. Odds are the bulls will get at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
Weekly S&P 500 E-Mini Chart
- This week’s E-mini candlestick was a small bull bar with tails above and below. It closed below last week’s high.
- Last week, we said that odds slightly favor sideways to up to test the June 2 high and maybe the May 4 high. Traders will see if the bulls get the third consecutive bull bar, or if it trades higher but reverses to close as a bear bar instead.
- This week traded slightly higher but did not reach June 2 high. The bulls got the third consecutive bull bar, but the small bull body indicates that the bulls are not as strong as they could have been.
- The bulls got a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot, and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17). They want a continuation higher from a higher low major trend reversal.
- This is the first series of consecutive bull bars (follow-through buying) since March. There is a 4-bar bull micro channel, and the move up from June 17 low is in a tight channel.
- That means persistent buying. The move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up move.
- The bears want the E-mini to stall around the June 2 high. They want a reversal lower from a double top bear flag followed by a re-test of the June low.
- The bears hope next week closes as a bear bar below the 20-week exponential moving average.
- Since this week is a bull bar, it is not a strong sell signal bar for next week.
- Traders are wondering if the current leg up will be like the 3 bull bars in March which is then followed by a strong leg down, forming the 3rd leg down of a larger wedge pattern.
- The E-mini is currently in a 13-week trading range. It is also in a broad bear channel.
- The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars trading far above June 2 high to convince traders that a reversal higher may be underway.
- If the E-mini continues to stall around the June 2 high, or around the May 4 high, or the major bear trend line in the next few weeks, odds are sellers will return and attempt to re-test the June low.
- For now, odds slightly favor at least a small second leg sideways to up after a small pullback.
- However, if the bears start getting consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, the odds of a 3rd leg down forming a larger wedge pattern increase.
Daily S&P 500 E-Mini chart
- The E-mini traded sideways to up, stalling around the June 2 high area.
- We have said that odds slightly favor sideways to up and traders will see if the bulls get sustained follow-through buying, something they have failed to do since March.
- So far, the bulls have had good follow-through buying testing near June 2 high.
- The bulls want a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17).
- They want a test of the May 4 lower high, followed by a strong break of the major bear trend line.
- The bulls want a continuation higher from a higher low major trend reversal after a pullback.
- The move up since July 14 is in a tight bull channel. It increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
- The bears want a reversal lower from a double top bear flag with June 2, or around the May 4 high or around the bear trend line.
- They then want a break below the June low, followed by a continuation of the measured move down to around 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range or lower, around 3450 based on the height of the 12-month trading range starting with May 2021.
- The bears will need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to convince traders that a re-test of the June low may be underway.
- Since Friday was a bull bar with a small tail above, it is a weak sell signal bar for Monday.
- The move up since July 14 is climactic. We may start to see some pullback within the next 1-3 weeks.
- For now, the move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.