Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini formed a doji bar on the daily chart on Friday, and on the weekly chart as well. This is a sign that the bears were exhausted after the big selloff from 2 weeks ago. Traders are deciding whether the bear breakout was a trap or the start of a bear trend on the daily chart.
Since last year’s close is not far below and it is an important magnet, the odds are that the Emini will trade below that price within the next week weeks.
Will it get there today? While it is possible, the Emini has been in a trading range for 7 days. Since trading ranges resist breaking out, the odds favor more sideways days this week.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini reversed up 30 points in the Globex session and is currently 10 points above Friday’s close. Since the daily chart has been in a trading range for 7 days, the odds are that the trading range will continue today. However, every day has had big ranges and big swings. There is no sign that this is about to end.
Friday was an inside day with a fairly big range. Since today will open in the middle of Friday’s range and the daily chart has been sideways for 8 days, there is an increased chance of an inside day today, or at least a day that largely overlaps Friday. Consequently, day traders will look for reversals up from around Friday’s low and for reversals down from around its high.
While any day can be a trend day, today will probably be a trading range day, and possibly an inside day.
Friday’s setups
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.