Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
🚨 Our Pro Data Reveals the True Winner of Earnings Season Access Data

Emerging/Submerging Markets And Non-U.S.: Signs Of Life?

By Brian GilmartinETFsOct 22, 2018 08:29AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/emergingsubmerging-markets-and-nonus-signs-of-life--200349684
Emerging/Submerging Markets And Non-U.S.: Signs Of Life?
By Brian Gilmartin   |  Oct 22, 2018 08:29AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
UK100
+0.62%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
EEM
-0.29%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
EWZ
+0.87%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
VWO
-0.28%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
MSCIEF
+1.09%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

EMFX Index
EMFX Index

Bespoke – in heir weekly Research Report – published every Friday night, had a great graph on what could be a potential bottoming in Emerging Markets the last few weeks.

This blog has written previously about Emerging Markets and Non-US (here and here, and here). Brazil (iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (NYSE:EWZ)) was never repurchased for clients, but the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE:EEM) and Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (NYSE:VWO) have been added to in small increments during the 3rd quarter, while a new mutual fund was added to client accounts, i.e. David Herro’s Oakmark International Fund. David has an impressive long-term track record, even though the fund is down 15% – 16% YTD as of Friday, 10/19/18. Both the VWO and EEM were / are also down 15% YTD as of last Friday. There has been a further flush in EM and non-US just since September 30th, when all three vehicles were down only down 7- 8% for the first 9 months of the year.

What’s the proper weight in client accounts for EM and non-US ? No doubt that varies depending on who you ask, but Emerging Market economies are about 15% of global GDP, with China being the largest share of that chunk. Chinese shares or China ETf’s will never be bought for client’s directly.

The 10-year bear market in the emerging market asset class ended in Q1 ’16. The three-year rolling return for the EEM is 5.5% and the 5-year rolling return for the EEM is just 29 bp’s.

If the dollar just remains stable and the US – China tariff spat could get resolved, I suspect it would break the EM and non-US open quickly, at a time when everyone is worried about the US market.

Here is the first-ever EM purchase for clients in March, 2016.

It’s (EM trading action, that is) is really all about China. China rose 4% last night.

The above mentioned positions will continue to be added for clients in small positions over the 4th quarter.

Emerging/Submerging Markets And Non-U.S.: Signs Of Life?
 

Related Articles

ETF Central
Growth Potential of China ETFs By ETF Central - Jan 31, 2023

China’s economy stalled last year amidst strict lockdowns related to Zero-Covid policies, in addition to an ailing property market. This weighed on Chinese stocks, with the...

Emerging/Submerging Markets And Non-U.S.: Signs Of Life?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email