The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) reported that its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined to 123.9 last week from 125.9 during the previous week. The annualized growth rate retreated slightly to 1.2 percent from its recent high at 1.7 percent.
Although the move lower in the WLI aligns with recent deterioration in economic data reports, it is too early to conclude with any useful degree of statistical certainty that an economic inflection point is developing. Additionally, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) of the Conference Board increased slightly in March and we will need to see if it follows the WLI lower in April.
We have been expecting the slight deterioration in coincident data that has occurred during the past several weeks and the next sign that a cyclical top is developing in the stock market would be acceleration in the deterioration during May and June. Therefore, it will be important to monitor the trend in economic data during the next several weeks, along with the resultant market reactions.
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ECRI Leading Indicator Turns Lower In April
Published 04/22/2012, 06:04 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
ECRI Leading Indicator Turns Lower In April
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