DotCom Deja Vu

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DotCom Deja Vu

By Jesse Felder | Oct 24, 2018 02:55PM ET

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The following is an excerpt from a recent chart book from The Felder Report Premium.

In a recent interview for RealVision, Stan Druckenmiller spoke about how he realized late in 2000 that rising interest rates (second pane in the chart below), oil prices (third pane) and the dollar (bottom pane) were almost always a recipe for lower corporate earnings (top pane). This gave him the confidence to put on a very large short position backed by the idea that analysts were far too optimistic about future earnings. Looking at what interest rates, oil and the dollar have done recently, it appears there’s a distinct possibility of a very similar disappointment playing out over the next few quarters.

Earnings, Interest Rates, Crude Oil And The USD

Certainly, as noted by Top Down Charts recently, expectations of forward earnings growth have not been as optimistic as they are today since that inauspicious time.

S&P 500 Outlook

Finally, the similarity between the price pattern of the S&P 500 today and the pattern it put in at the 2000 top may also be worth taking note of (chart via Nautilus Research).

S&P 500 Then And Now

All in all, investors may want to consider the possibility of another earnings disappointment that leads to a reevaluation of the merits of paying some of the most ridiculous prices in history, especially at a time when liquidity is being withdrawn at an unprecedented rate.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

5.00%

May 03, 2023

ECB

3.50%

May 04, 2023

BOE

4.25%

May 11, 2023

SNB

1.50%

Jun 22, 2023

RBA

3.60%

Apr 04, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Apr 12, 2023

RBNZ

4.75%

May 24, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Apr 28, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Apr 28, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Apr 03, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

May 03, 2023

US 30	32,506.4	+74.3	+0.23%
US 500	3,984.8	+7.3	+0.18%
Dow Jones	32,432.08	+194.55	+0.60%
S&P 500	3,977.53	+6.54	+0.16%
Nasdaq	11,768.84	-55.12	-0.47%
S&P 500 VIX	20.60	0.00	0.00%
Dollar Index	102.282	-0.236	-0.23%

Crude Oil WTI	72.88	+0.07	+0.10%
Brent Oil	77.53	-0.23	-0.30%
Natural Gas	2.233	+0.013	+0.59%
Gold	1,976.25	+4.75	+0.24%
Silver	23.177	+0.032	+0.14%
Copper	4.0910	-0.0065	-0.16%
US Soybeans	1,442.12	+0.62	+0.04%

U.S. 10Y	3.513	-0.015	-0.43%
U.S. 30Y	3.745	-0.015	-0.39%
U.S. 5Y	3.5702	-0.0250	-0.69%
U.S. 3M	4.8648	+0.1130	+2.37%
US 10Y T-Note	115.11	+0.12	+0.11%
Euro Bund	136.22	-0.03	-0.02%
10-2 Yield Spread	-47.23	-7.43	18.67%

Apple	158.15	-2.10	-1.31%
Alphabet A	102.46	-2.98	-2.83%
Tesla	191.81	+1.40	+0.74%
Amazon.com	98.04	-0.09	-0.09%
Netflix	327.66	-0.73	-0.22%
Meta Platforms	202.84	-3.17	-1.54%
Bank of America	28.49	+1.35	+4.97%

DotCom Deja Vu

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