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Disappointing Data, Narrow Range

Published 10/03/2012, 06:21 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Things that can move the U.S. today:
  • Asia mixed: Nikkei -.45%, China out, HK +.23%, SoKo flat, Aust +.13%
  • China non-mfg PMI 53.7 vs 56.3 prev; Singapore PMI 48.7 vs 49.5 prev
  • Australia new home sales -5.3% MoM vs -5.6% previous
  • Europe steady: Eurostoxx +.25%, Dax +.30%, FTSE +.14%
  • Sweden svc PMI 47.3 vs 50.3 expected, 50.7 previous
  • Germany svc PMI 49.7 vs 50.6 expected, 50.6 previous
  • UK svc PMI 52.2 vs 53 expected, 53.7 previous
  • Eurozone retail sales -1.3% YoY vs -1.9% expected, -1.4% previous
  • Ireland unemployment unchanged at 14.8%
Despite a slew of bad news Europe remains calm, focusing instead on Spain's eventual capitulation on its bailout, and the next round of goodies from central banks. Though China will be out all week, there is still talk of a stimulus package when they return to work.

That is certainly one line of thinking, but meanwhile the data from Europe stinks: Look at the service PMIs reported today. Only the UK service PMI remains above the expansionary 50-line, while even Germany took the plunge today, falling to 49.7 this month. Sweden dropped a stunning 3 points more than expected, and France came in very weak at 45.0. These are not manufacturing PMIs--they get the attention, normally--but weak nonetheless, but services are getting a larger and larger slice of the economic pie. This is not what we want to see, particularly in Europe, where purchasing managers should be basking in the glow of Draghi 3.0.

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