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Dead Cat Bounce Or A Market Recovery?

Published 02/04/2022, 08:04 AM
Updated 09/11/2023, 01:40 PM

There's a famous quote attributed to JP Morgan (the man, not the institution) when asked what he thought the market would do in the future. "It will fluctuate" was his considered reply. And that is probably the safest thing to say about markets at the moment.

Stock markets started the year by falling substantially in January - at its worst point, the broad S&P 500 index was down by 7.5%, and that was only the third week of the year. Part of those losses have been erased, but stock markets are still experiencing significant intraday swings.

Then, of course, there are individual stocks. Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:FB) was making headlines this week, as 30% was wiped off its value in terse order - from Wednesday to Thursday's close, to be precise.

I think it is fair to say that the JP Morgan approach is probably the correct one for now - expect volatility. There's another famous saying, "no one rings a bell at the top of the market." It's only one month since the S&P set fresh all-time highs, but it is still too early to call whether that was the absolute top for a while - or all of the recent slides are just another buying opportunity before the market powers back to life again.

But with some of the old favorites like Meta and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) under the cosh this year, this sell-off certainly feels different from what investors have been through over the past 18 months.

One market that has continued its long rise is the oil price. As of Friday morning, the oil price is above $90 a barrel, the highest seen since October 2014. This is great if you are a shareholder in oil companies - not so much if you're a central banker trying to contain inflation.

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The Bank of England raised rates as expected this week, but with commodities such as oil continuing to pile the pressure on the cost of living, it looks like central bankers are destined to play a game of catch up for some months.

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