Market movers today
Yesterday we published a presentation on the Swedish housing market : What if Swedish house prices dropped 15-20%? While SEK has adjusted we believe Swedish rates have yet to adjust to the weaker housing market in Sweden.
In the euro area the PMI figures for November are due for release. Manufacturing PMI rose steadily throughout 2017 and reached 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September. It is now strikingly close to the 59.0 post-crisis peak reached in February 2011. While survey expectations indicators point towards further increases with rising consumer confidence and high Ifo and ZEW expectations, we expect only a moderate increase as the euro appreciation in 2017 could have started to act as a drag on export orders. Thus, we expect manufacturing PMI to increase to 58.7 and service PMI to increase to 55.2.
The ECB minutes from the October meeting are also due for release today. At the October meeting, the ECB extended its QE programme for another nine months in 2018 but scaled down the monthly purchases to EUR30bn (see also ECB Review: ECB opts for lower-for-longer QE extension , 26 October). In the minutes, focus will be on the Governing Council's discussions regarding whether to put a definite end date to the QE programme, which might give insights regarding the likelihood of a possible tapering starting in Q4 18.
In addition, German revised Q3 GDP are due for release today.
In Norway the Q4 oil investment survey could turn out to be the week's most important release (see next page).
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: