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Daily Shot: Bonds Still Under Pressure

Published 05/13/2015, 07:17 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Bonds around the world again came under pressure on Tuesday. Here are the yields for the 30-Year treasury as well as the French and the German 10-year government bonds.
US 30 Year Yield Chart
France 10 Year Yield
German 10 Year Yield
Bond prices stabilised later in the day but traders remain jittery. By the way, for those piling into the short Bund trade, consider the fact that the European Central Bank is only getting started.

Here is the Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet:

Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet

The US dollar continues to drift lower on expectations of a delayed rate hike in the US.
US dollar Index Chart
The weaker dollar and a minor 2015 demand increase in OPEC's latest projections sent crude oil higher, with WTI nearby futures trading above $61/bbl (chart below). Some are suggesting that the rise in global yields is linked to this rise in crude - as deflationary fears subside.
Crude Oil Chart
Another data point supporting crude prices was a bigger than expected draw from US crude inventories last week.
US crude inventories
Switching to Asia, Japan's current account surplus beat expectations by a significant margin. The yen weakness is beginning to pay off.
Adjusted Current Account
Australia's wage growth hit a new low (driven by export sector weakness), giving the Reserve Bank of Australia more flexibility.
Australia Wage Price Index
As I discussed before, China's appetite for gambling hasn't gone away with the Macau slowdown. It shifted into the stock market.

China New Account Opening vs Macau GGR Growth
In the United States we continue to have the Beveridge Curve dislocation driven by the skills gap. The housing bubble used to absorb a great deal of low-skill labour - which does not meat the requirements for current job openings.
Beveridge Curve
The US posted the biggest monthly budget surplus in seven years. Is this an indication of stronger growth?
US Fed Budget Balance

The treasury curve has steepened since the beginning of the year - with the longer dated maturities most impacted.
US Treasury Curve

US banking shares have been outperforming materially as a result of the steeper yield curve.
US banking shares
It seems that liquidity in treasuries declined materially this year. Will this trend continue?
liquidity in treasuries

Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com

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