Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

A Dove In Hawk's Clothing

Published 03/19/2015, 08:17 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM

We begin with the Federal Open Market Committee announcement that took the markets by surprise. The initial focus was on the fact that the FOMC dropped the sentence "can be patient in beginning to normalise...", but it quickly shifted to an added phrase in the statement: "export growth has weakened".


This means that the Fed is indeed uneasy with the dollar strength that has been creating headwinds for manufacturing and may proceed with caution.


Furthermore, the forecasts for GDP growth and inflation have been lowered materially. In fact the FOMC does not expect the PCE inflation to hit the 2% target until 2017. The projections shown below are compared to what the FOMC had in December.

GDP Forecase

Treasury markets experienced a large move – the five-year yield shown below. One can see the markets first viewing the statement as hawkish and then realizing that the FOMC has actually shifted to a more dovish stance.
2

The first Fed hike expectations have shifted to middle of Q4'15, while the second to the end of Q1'16.
Expected Fed Hike

*********
As a technical note, the Fed is not expected to set a target Fed Funds rate but instead to shift the range from 0-25 basis points to 25-50bp when it does hike rates.
Fed Statement

*********
The dollar declined sharply in reaction to this statement from the FOMC (it was one of the largest intraday moves I've seen in a while). Speculative accounts are very long the dollar and such violent corrections could occur again.
US Dollar Index Daily Chart

*********
The reaction in the oil markets to this dollar decline was quite muted. April WTI contract is still below $44/barrel.
Crude Oil Chart

*********
As the markets push the risks of the first Fed hike further out in time, attention turns to Greece. With tons of rhetoric and not much to show for on a potential compromise, the situation remains fluid. The Greek banking system is in trouble as deposits continue to flee.
Greek Deposits

Greek government bond yields have jumped, with the Greek 10-Year yield above 11% again.
Greece 10 Year Yield

And Greek sovereign CDS rose above recent highs as well. While the Eurozone is known for coming up with last minute solutions as it faces each crisis, this one feels different. The parties are just too far apart. And as I discussed before, a Grexit and the loss of confidence it will generate could be devastating for the area's nascent economic recovery.
Greece/ SY Senior Oldre/ Spread/ Nyclose

*********
Elsewhere in Europe, Sweden's central bank cut rates deeper into negative territory as it fights deflation. The concept of Zero Nominal Lower Bound does not seem to be a problem these days.
Sweden Interest Rate

Sweden stock market cheered.
OMX Chart

*********
Finally, the situation in Ukraine is turning from bad to worse. Industrial production is collapsing and the help from the International Monetary Fund will be too little too late.
Ukraine Industrial Production

*********
Now some food for thought – two items:
1. Vietnam is becoming one of the next destinations of choice for cheap electronics manufacturing as it overtakes Thailand.
Thailand vs Vietnam

2. Nations where people drive on left side of the road: blue, on right side of the road: red
Right Side vs Left Side Driving

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.