USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.16; (P) 112.30; (R1) 112.45;
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top in place at 112.44, after hitting 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43. As long as 111.65 minor support holds, further rise is expected. Above 112.44 will target a test on 113.17 high. Break will resume larger rally from 104.62 to 114.73 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 111.65 will dampen the immediate bullish outlook and turn bias back to the downside instead.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9634; (P) 0.9667; (R1) 0.9708;
At this point, USD/CHF is still kept in range below 0.9757 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, even in case of another fall, downside will likely be contained by 0.9523 fibonacci level to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9757 will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has formed a short term bottom. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9804).
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
