GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3899; (P) 1.3965; (R1) 1.4004;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3917 temporary low is still unfolding. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.4089 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 1.3917 will target 1.3711 key support next. However, firm break of 1.4089 will turn focus back to 1.4376 high instead.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is raising the chance of medium term reversal. Also, note that GBP/USD has just failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4257). Focus is back on 1.3711 support. Firm break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. For now, sustained break of 55 month EMA is needed to confirm medium term upside momentum. Otherwise, we won’t turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9792; (P) 0.9819; (R1) 0.9859;
USD/CHF is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias remains on the upside with 0.9766 minor support intact. Current rise from 0.9186 is still in progress for 0.9900 fibonacci level first. Break will target 1.0037 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9766 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9576 support holds.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it’s likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 0.9576 support holds.
