Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1692; (R1) 1.1710;
EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.1740 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As noted before, pull back from 1.1832 is already completed at 1.1445. Further rise will be in favor as long as 1.1630 minor support holds. Above 1.1740 will target a test on 1.1832 high. We’ll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2814; (P) 1.2830; (R1) 1.2857;
USD/CAD lost some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Below 1.2802 will target term channel support (now at 1.2724). At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3000 at 1.2712 to contain downside and bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3000 will resume the medium term rally to 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level
In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.
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