Bitcoin – If you have followed me on social media since May 11 you will know that I predicted the crypto crash, after spotting a 2 month head and shoulders reversal pattern, which completed on May 17 for a clear sell signal.
I also suggested longs at 31100/30000 yesterday. We bottomed exactly at and shot higher to first resistance at 37000/38000 for an easy 7000 ticks profit.
Ripple XRP crashed to very important 6 month trend line and 200 day moving average support at 0.7040-0.6558. We wrote: This is the best chance of an end to the crash.
What a call!! Prices bottomed at 6510 and shot higher to strong resistance at 0.9200/9450. However we continued higher to important 38.2% Fibonacci & short term moving average resistance at 1.0515/45.
Ethereum we wrote: has collapsed to retest the 14 month 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. In fact as I write we bottomed exactly at 1731.
THIS IS THE LAST LINE OF DEFENCE FOR BULLS WITH A POTENTIAL DOUBLE BOTTOM BUY SIGNAL – IF YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR AN EXCELLENT BUYING OPPORTUNITY THEN THIS IS WORTH A GAMBLE.
What a call! Prices bottomed exactly here and shot higher to beat strong resistance at 2300/2400 for a buy signal targeting 2600 anf 2750/2800. We topped exactly here.
Today’s Analysis
Bitcoin shot higher to first resistance at 37000/38000 and is the main challenge for bulls today. However we also have strong resistance at 39500/40500. So it is only above 41500 that bulls are fully back in control, initially targeting 42000/42500 and head and shoulders neckline at 43750/44000.
Failure to beat the 37500/40500 resistance area keeps bears in control. Remember we are in a 2 month bear trend and this could be just the start. Below 37000 risks a slide to 35500 and a retest of strong support at 31100/30000, just above my ultimate target for the head and shoulders sell signal at 27500/27000. Brave bulls can try longs again at 31100/30000 but be aware that my ultimate target for the crash was 27500/27000. So save some funds to add to longs here. However longs need stops below 25500. A break lower signals significant further losses are likely.
Ripple tests important 38.2% Fibonacci and short term moving average resistance at 1.0515/1.0545. Shorts need stops above 1.1400. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1700/1.1800, perhaps as far as 1.3000/1.3500. Shorts at strong resistance at 1.0515/1.0545 target 0.9000/0.8970, perhaps as far as 0.8050/30. Again expect very important 6 month trend line and 200 day moving average support at 0.7040-0.6558 to hold the downside. Brave bulls or longer term investors can try longs with stops below 0.6400. If prices hold below here then all is lost for the bulls and a further significant correction to the downside looks likely.
Initially we can target 0.5100 – 0.4800.
Ethereum longs at the 1730 area worked perfectly on the 1000 tick (or 58%) rally to strong resistance at 2750/2800. This the main challenge for bulls today. Shorts need stops above 2850. A break higher is another buy signal targeting first resistance at 3050/3100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3300/3400. Shorts need stops above 3500. Shorts at 2750/2800 target first support at 2400/2350. A low for the day is certainly possible here but longs need stops below 2300. A break lower to targets 2140/30 before a retest of important 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. Brave bulls can try longs here again and can also average down, buying a little more at the 200 day moving average at 1600. It is entirely possible that this will be the low for the crash.
Longs MUST stop below 1500. A break lower to kills the recovery hopes and risks a slide to to 1300/1250. Although the decline may pause here I do not see this as a strong support level and longs would be extremely risky.