Crude oil's weekly continuation chart displays an 18-month head-and-shoulders top pattern and there's a chance that the Sept. 28 high will represent the high of the right shoulder.
If this analysis is correct, the right shoulder appears to be taking the form of a 15-week channel.
Note on the intraday graph (6-hour bars) a possible completed H&S top (red box). Always keep in mind that the reliability of chart construction is greatly diminished as shorter time frames are considered. The vast overwhelming proportion of intraday (and even daily) chart patterns morph into a different form. Nevertheless, given my overall view, I am willing to short the market if this intraday H&S is retested this week.
Commercial interests hold a near-record short position in crude oil, exceeded only by the COT profile at the Jan./Feb. 2017 and July 2014 highs.
Crude-oil prices are entering a period of seasonal weakness that should extend through Jan. 2018, as shown below.
