In my post of March 2 on Crude Oil, I mentioned that my previous price Targets 1 and 2 (100.00 and 111.00-112.00), which I'd identified in my prior post of February 24, had been hit...and that target 3 (147.27) still remained intact.
However, just days later, price hit a high of 130.50 on March 7...not quite tagging target 3, but coming fairly close...before chopping around that level, then beginning a drop to current levels, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Note that an extreme spike formed by the end of March on the ATR indicator...hinting that a price turnaround may be imminent. As I did in my March post, I've shown the ATR with an input value of one period to clearly illustrate that such a spike occurred that month.
Price is stuck, again, within, what I've dubbed a 'Chaos Zone,' in between 80.00 and 100.00.
Previous attempted breakouts above this zone have been short-lived, since January 2008. In fact, those breakouts have all been followed by a large drop to retest long-term major support at 40.00.
Whether price drops to 40.00 any time soon, is anyone's guess. If it does, watch to see if the ATR forms another extreme spike to signal a potential price reversal.
However, if such a spike occurs at any price above that level on the monthly timeframe, a bounce may soon follow...possibly to tag or surpass target 3 (147.27).
So, keep an eye on the ATR for clues in this regard.
