Sign up to create alerts for Instruments,
Economic Events and content by followed authors
Free Sign Up Already have an account? Sign In
Maxamuud Maxamed
Aug 07, 2020 6:46AM ET
good
0
0
Quotes
All Instrument Types
- All Instrument Types
- Indices
- Equities
- ETFs
- Funds
- Commodities
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Bonds
- Certificates
Please try another search
Final hours: unlock premium data with Claim 60% OFF
Coronavirus: Potential Signs Of Containment, Key Markets To Watch
www.investing.com/analysis/coronavirus-potential-signs-of-containment-key-markets-to-watch-200503254
Coronavirus: Potential Signs Of Containment, Key Markets To Watch
By Matthew Weller | Jan 30, 2020 01:19PM ET This week, traders have been weighing generally optimistic signs from massive U.S. technology companies against the continued spread of coronavirus. So far, virus fears are winning out as seen by the week-to-date drop in major global indices and rally in traditional safe havens like gold and bonds. That said, the situation is far from resolved, so we wanted to take a look at the raw numbers and highlight different market opportunities for traders to examine.
While the total number of infections and deaths continue to grow, it’s worth noting that the percentage growth rate of those figures has shifted lower in recent days. Reviving and expanding our rough, “naïve growth” coronavirus model from earlier this week, we can see that the growth rate of infections and deaths on mainland China has shifted down to “only” around 25-30% over the last two days:
Source: Chinese Health Commission, GAIN Capital.
Reiterating that I’m not an epidemiologist and this is far from an exhaustive model, there are tentative signs that Chinese authorities may be slowing the growth rate of the infection, a critical step toward ultimately containing it. Early data from other countries is even more optimistic, with no deaths reported in other countries. We’ll continue to monitor these developments in the coming days, as any new outbreaks in other countries or reacceleration in growth would be very worrisome.
Market Implications
Based on the general recovery in risk assets since Monday’s swoon, traders are taking a similar cautiously optimistic view toward the virus’s spread. At this point, it’s premature to speculate on the ultimate economic impact, but this quarter’s growth is likely to slow sharply with many heavily populated regions of mainland China on lockdown during the critical New Year holiday. The SARS epidemic of 2003 reportedly shaved 1-2% off China’s GDP growth and coronavirus has likely already eclipsed the total number of infections from SARS (though early indications of the death rate are lower).Rather than wait for the official economic figures, traders have aggressively sold Chinese assets, with USD/CNH retesting the key 7.00 level and the FTSE China A50 index shedding about 12% over the last two weeks:Source: TradingView, GAIN Capital.As we noted earlier this week, individual equities and markets could provide additional trading opportunities in the days and weeks to come.Assets Likely To Be Correlated With Spread Of Coronavirus:
Markets Likely To Be Inversely Correlated With Spread Of Coronavirus:
*Please note that not all of these markets are available in all regions.
Related Articles
Q4 GDP Nowcasts Suggest Soft Landing Is Still Plausible
By James Picerno - Dec 08, 2023
US economic growth remains on track to slow in the fourth quarter, but today’s revised analysis still supports a “soft landing” outlook that will keep output strong enough to...
Markets Brace for Pivotal Week Amid CPI Inflation, Fed Meeting
By Jesse Cohen - Dec 08, 2023
3
Investors should brace for more volatility next week as the stock market faces a pair of significant market-moving risk events. U.S. CPI inflation data and the Federal...
The 'American Dream' Isn’t Dead: 10 Steps to Achieve It
By Lance Roberts - Dec 08, 2023
12
The “American Dream” is dead. It would certainly seem to be the case if you believe surveys like Gallup that showed nearly 50% of the younger generation favor socialism...
Coronavirus: Potential Signs Of Containment, Key Markets To Watch
Comments (6)
John Smith
Jan 31, 2020 8:21AM ET
I bet he is writing this article while selling stocks, as how else can the market be down so much without the big guys selling
0
0
John Smith
Jan 31, 2020 8:18AM ET
guess all the new data about the virus release show him wrong
0
0
Jay pipin
Jan 31, 2020 12:40AM ET
Just my view: early next week the virus or data will push markets back to Thursday levels, then only reprieve will be china signing deal that will be a cannonball, then end of Feb the virus is still uncontained and markets begin the panic, the production will crash due to workers being sick or staying housebound etc, then crash until around may, all time highs will be in.
0
0
John Smith
Jan 31, 2020 12:40AM ET
much earlier as this spread faster than SARS
0
0
Jose Emenis
Jan 30, 2020 10:12PM ET
Wall Street isn't taking the coronavirus seriously.... Haha!!.... Let's see what they think when the dead bodies are stacked 3 high in Times Square.
1
2
peter neal
Jan 30, 2020 7:26PM ET
I guess you are trying to say buy some more stocks. No reason to stop buying now. I personally see the equity rally going on for another decade. I believe the Fed has the resources to do that and they have even made direct equity purchases yet. I wouldn't let s little flu interupt the advance.Thanks
3
2
TubsSkinnyFinger
Jan 30, 2020 7:26PM ET
Sarcasm?
2
0
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
Report this comment
I feel that this comment is:
Comment flagged
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.