Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Commodities Week Ahead: Fed, OPEC+ To Dominate Intense Week For Oil, Gold

By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)CommoditiesMay 02, 2022 04:35AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/commodities-week-ahead-fed-opec-to-dominate-intense-week-for-oil-gold-200623283
Commodities Week Ahead: Fed, OPEC+ To Dominate Intense Week For Oil, Gold
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)   |  May 02, 2022 04:35AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

In one of the most intense weeks for markets, the Federal Reserve and OPEC+ will both be on the radar of commodity investors, setting gold and oil prices up for a particularly turbulent time, with the central bank and the global oil producing alliance out to achieve very different aims.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

The Fed is likely to impose a 50-basis, or half-percentage, point rate hike at the conclusion of its May policy meeting on Wednesday—its first hike of such magnitude in over 20 years—as it aims to quell the worst inflation in four decades. 

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

Gold plunged even before the start of the official session in New York on Monday, falling more than 1% in Asian trading, into deeper $1,800 territory as the dollar—the yellow metal’s key rival and chief beneficiary of US rate hikes—soared along with bond yields led by the US 10-year Treasury note

“A sustained move below $1870 may push spot gold down to the 50-week Exponential Moving Average of $1,850 and the 100-week Simple Moving Average of $1,837,” said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at skcharting.com. Adding:

“If gold breaks below $1837, $1,818 will likely hold as support.”

Oil also tumbled in the Asian session starting the week, with Brent, the global oil benchmark, and US West Texas Intermediate, the gauge for US crude, losing as much 1% in holiday-sapped trade as the Muslim religious festival Eid and other holidays shuttered markets on that side of the world.

Oil’s drop was more on concerns about slowing economic growth in China, the world's top oil importer, although worries over the Fed rate move could also weigh on crude later in the week, especially if fears of a US recession accelerate.

In what is likely to be its biggest rate hike since May 2000, the Fed seeks to clamp down particularly on spiraling wages and demand for workers—the two major culprits of current price pressures, at least according to the central bank. 

Higher interest rates are the Fed’s go-to mechanism for tackling inflation, as they make the cost of borrowing or investing more expensive, and can put a damper on spending by both households and businesses. If companies decide they don’t need as many employees, then the current high demand for workers could also ease up. 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell argues that a steady series of seven rate hikes this year can not only bring down soaring inflation, but can also help reset the job market by cooling off demand for labor. 

Both the US economy and inflation expanded at their fastest pace in four decades in 2021 while jobs growth hit record highs. The last two have continued growing without a blip while the economy is already slowing.

Economists say the Fed’s plan of downing inflation and spiraling inflation while providing a soft landing for the economy—all at the same time—will be extremely difficult to pull off, given the uncertainty of the post-pandemic world. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has roiled global energy markets, with the widespread expectation that American households will feel the sting at the gas pump. Recent COVID shutdowns at major Chinese manufacturing hubs have also renewed global supply chain woes, and offer a sobering reminder of the pandemic’s ongoing economic threat.

Since 1961, the Fed has launched nine full cycles of rate hikes to combat inflation. Recessions followed eight of those tries, according to research from the investment bank Piper Sandler.

And giving new impetus to that history, the first quarter of 2022 has already seen a 1.4% contraction in US GDP. That came after a phenomenal 5.7% jump in 2021 as the economy rebounded from the COVID ravages of 2020 that caused a 3.5% GDP decline that year, leaving the US with the first recession since 2008/09. 

For another recession—which is defined as two straight quarters or more of GDP decline—the US needs to see the slowdown extend through June. 

If the job market slows down because of the Fed, this will have important implications on the oil market because of the nexus between the two.

High oil prices can hurt economic growth but not, necessarily, a job market like the one in the US now. But a slowdown in jobs growth, or worse, a sharp spike in employment—just like two years ago, at the height of the coronavirus breakout—will almost certainly drive crude prices lower. 

Any impact might not be felt right away and probably not this week, when the Fed meeting is just a day before that of OPEC+, the global oil producing alliance whose job more than ensuring the stability of crude supply to the world is to ensure that a barrel stays at above $100.

Just like the Fed is determined to break the back of the US inflation, OPEC+ is determined that oil prices never again see the lows of COVID 2020. These are the dynamics we have to keep in mind as the Fed isn’t going to be able to reduce inflation without getting oil prices down—wage spiral and demand for workers being just one part of the problem—and OPEC+ isn’t going to roll over and play dead while the central bank and the combined forces of the Biden administration try to take an axe to the oil market. 

While US crude is likely to retest last week’s support areas of the $101 - $98, buyers may also surface at that point to resume the main bullish momentum aiming for the $105 - $108 resistance and liquidity areas, Dixit of skcharting said. Adding:

“If this $105 - $108 resistance area attracts enough buyers, expect momentum to ride higher to $109 - $113 and even extend to $116.” 

Also, if push comes to shove, OPEC+ will keep squeezing crude production to ensure prices don’t fall too far from where they are.

With the advent of summer air travel and US road trips just around the corner, it might be hard to keep oil below $100 a barrel as much as it might be difficult to prevent it from testing the highs of Ukraine invasion, which was almost $140.

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables. He does not hold positions in the commodities and securities he writes about.

Commodities Week Ahead: Fed, OPEC+ To Dominate Intense Week For Oil, Gold
 

Related Articles

Phil Flynn
The Energy Report: Recession Session By Phil Flynn - Jul 06, 2022 2

This is what a recession might feel like. Oil prices crashed as recession fears overtook concerns about near-term tight supply against a backdrop of reports that China was imposing...

Commodities Week Ahead: Fed, OPEC+ To Dominate Intense Week For Oil, Gold

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (4)
Abhay Agrawal
Abhay Agrawal May 03, 2022 1:58AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Barani sir,very nice article.sir I think that fed has lost its credibility because a test ago the inflation was described as transitory by federal chief. now'they are trying to control the demon by a pebble which is armed by an armour (Russian war).they wouldn't succeed.the rising rates will cause slowdown and ultimately recession.the last nail in the coffen
Abhay Agrawal
Abhay Agrawal May 03, 2022 1:58AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
sorry typo mistake its last year not test
Jeff Stuart
Jeff Stuart May 02, 2022 9:35AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Love how the Fed blames workers and wants them all to lose their shirts in a recession, especially after real wagers have stagnated for a half century.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan May 02, 2022 9:35AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
In a sense, you're right. It's unfortunate that the Fed is targeting workers. Admittedly, higher wages are part of the problem though workers absolutely deserve them after a generation of pittance compensation for flipping burgers at McD.
Murali Krishna
Murali Krishna May 02, 2022 9:18AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Gold by not going down quickly enough is scaring the Fed and throwing a challenge to the Feds to hike rates more. Gold by not going down quickly enough, is also calling out the Fed bluff. Feds will not be satisfied until gold crashes.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan May 02, 2022 9:18AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I know you want $600 gold, Murali. That ain't gonna happen fast enough for you ... and probably NEVER will :)
Murali Krishna
Murali Krishna May 02, 2022 9:14AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bourgeoisie means middle class in democracy vs. the rich capitalists in communist societies.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email