Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Can LyondellBasell (LYB) Sustain Earnings Streak In Q4?

By Zacks Investment ResearchStock MarketsJan 30, 2019 07:53AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/can-lyondellbasell-lyb-sustain-earnings-streak-in-q4-200381100
Can LyondellBasell (LYB) Sustain Earnings Streak In Q4?
By Zacks Investment Research   |  Jan 30, 2019 07:53AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) is set to release fourth-quarter 2018 results before the opening bell on Feb 1.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s profits rose roughly 5% year over year to $1,113 million or $2.85 per share. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.96 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73, translating into a positive earnings surprise of 10.8%.

Revenues went up roughly 19% year over year of $10,155 million. It also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,564 million.

Notably, LyondellBasell surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average positive earnings surprise being 10.8%.

The company’s shares have lost 26.7% in the past year, underperforming the industry’s 23% decline.


Can the company surprise investors again or is it heading for a pullback? Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

LyondellBasell, in its third-quarter call, stated that it expects to drive operational and business improvements in Refining, Technology as well as Intermediates and Derivatives businesses in the fourth quarter. The company is poised to benefit from increased access to markets, incremental synergies from the integration of A. Schulman acquisition and formation of the Advanced Polymer Solutions segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $9,222 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 1%.

At the company's Olefins & Polyolefins – Americas segment, revenues are expected to rise 2% from the year-ago quarter as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $2,857 million.

Revenues from the Olefins & Polyolefins – Europe, Asia, International division are likely to decline 10% year over year as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $2,772 million.

Revenues for LyondellBasell’s Intermediates and Derivatives segment is projected to rise 1.1% from the prior-year quarter’s tally as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2,256 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at the Refining segment is pegged at $1,863 million, reflecting a 11.8% decrease on a year-over-year basis.

The Technology segment sales are expected to fall 4.8% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at $119 million.

LyondellBasell is executing its expansion projects to leverage the U.S. natural gas liquids advantage. The company’s operational improvement initiatives are expected to drive earnings in the December quarter. Continued strong demand is also expected to support results in the Olefins & Polyolefins – Americas segment.

The buyout of A. Schulman is also expected to create significant synergies. The buyout doubles the size of LyondellBasell's existing compounding business. The company is making progress with the integration of the acquisition and expects to realize $32 million in annual run-rate synergies.

However, LyondellBasell’s operations are subject to maintenance outages, which are affecting results. The company expects roughly $25-million impact from downtime associated with planned maintenance at its German cracker in the fourth quarter at its Olefins & Polyolefins – Europe, Asia, International segment. This may impact volumes at the segment.

Moreover, maintenance at one of LyondellBasell’s propylene oxide plants in Texas reduced EBITDA by roughly $20 million in the third quarter at the Intermediates and Derivatives unit and is expected to lower margins by roughly $25 million in the fourth quarter.

Planned maintenance at the company’s refinery also impacted EBITDA by around $20 million in the third quarter and is expected to hurt margins by $45 million in the fourth quarter.

The company is also seeing a rise in feedstock costs, which is hurting margins in the Olefins & Polyolefins – Europe, Asia, International division. Moreover, LyondellBasell faces challenges in the European markets for polymers with sluggish demand growth and ample supply. It expects market pressure to continue in the fourth quarter along with a lower demand due to typical seasonal effects.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not show that LyondellBasell is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below:

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for LyondellBasell is +6.17%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $2.26 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $2.13. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LyondellBasell currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Strong Sell) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Franco-Nevada Corporation (TO:FNV) has an Earnings ESP of +3.05% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

New Gold Inc. (NYSE:NGD) has an Earnings ESP of +166.67% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Teck Resources Limited (NYSE:TECK) has an Earnings ESP of +6.03% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2019

In addition to the stocks discussed above, wouldn't you like to know about our 10 finest buy-and-holds for the year?

From more than 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank, these 10 were picked by a process that consistently beats the market. Even during 2018 while the market dropped -5.2%, our Top 10s were up well into double-digits. And during bullish 2012 – 2017, they soared far above the market's +126.3%, reaching +181.9%.

This year, the portfolio features a player that thrives on volatility, an AI comer, and a dynamic tech company that helps doctors deliver better patient outcomes at lower costs.

See Stocks Today >>



LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB): Free Stock Analysis Report

Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV): Free Stock Analysis Report

Teck Resources Ltd (TECK): Get Free Report

New Gold Inc. (NGD): Free Stock Analysis Report

Original post

Zacks Investment Research
Can LyondellBasell (LYB) Sustain Earnings Streak In Q4?
 

Related Articles

Can LyondellBasell (LYB) Sustain Earnings Streak In Q4?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email