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Can Activist Investors Turn These 3 Stocks Around?

Published 10/21/2024, 03:24 PM
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Playing the role of “smart money,” activist investors provide the market with important signals. Either through bullish investments or reformative push, they can boost stock value.

Whether that is short-term or long-term is another matter. However, these stocks have seen significant activist investor activity that is aligned with some key fundamentals.

Talos Energy, Inc.

According to IEA’s latest October Oil Market Report (OMR), global oil demand is to expand by ~1mb/d in 2025 from the 102.8 mb/d global supply as of September. Although up from September’s yearly bottom, Brent crude is still at multi-year lows, currently at $74 /bbl, down 11% over the last three months.

Following the heated Iran-Israel tensions, oil supply risks are still on the table. This bolsters the Gulf of Mexico as the crucial cog in the global oil supply, benefiting oil companies with significant holdings. Talos Energy is heavily concentrated in this area as the 5th largest GoM operator. The company focuses on the acquisition and development of offshore oil and gas, deepwater projects and shallow water fields.

In the Q2 2024 earnings representation, Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) reduced its debt load by $100 million, having beaten estimated free cash flow of $119.6 million at $148 million. The company plans to continue to pursue the strategy of low leverage and high margin oil weighted production, as more assets are developed across Katmai, Helms Deep, Ewing Bank and Daenerys exploration ventures.

Image credit: Talos Energy

Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim increased his Talos Energy stake by buying 2,166,000 TALO shares at an average price of $10.76 from the end of July to August 7th. This brought Slim’s exposure to 40.1 million shares, representing around 22% of total outstanding shares.

At the present price of $9.67, TALO shares are down 26% year-to-date, which is still under the 52-week average of $12.58 per share. Per Nasdaq’s forecasting data, the average TALO price target is $15.93, with even the bottom outlook of $12.5 above the current price level.

Southwest Airlines Company

This Texas-based airliner is known for its point-to-point service that charges no fees for flight changes/cancellations and offers free baggage checking for up to two bags. Pressured by activist investors, the company’s COO noted in late September that “difficult decisions” will have to be made to increase profitability.

To pursue that goal, Southwest Airlines Company (NYSE:LUV) is planning to increase fare for seats with more legroom, replace open seating with assigned seats and implement so-called red-eye flights. The latter are flights that depart at night and arrive the next morning. To boost investor confidence, the company announced a $2.5 billion stock buyback plan in September.

In Q2 2024 earnings, the company reported $367 million net income, halved from the $683 million in the year-ago quarter. Likewise, Southwest’s operating expenses increased significantly, from $6.2 billion to $6.9 billion in that period.

One of the most prolific activist investors, Elliot Management, increased Southwest Airlines stake with 7 million LUV shares in early August at a price range between $24.48 and $25.55 per share. This increased Elliot’s exposure to 48.9 million shares, representing 8.2% of total outstanding shares.

Elliot Management is exerting pressure to relieve current Southwest Airlines CEO, Robert E. Jordan, who has been serving since February 2022. Presently priced at $30.23, LUV stock is up 6.2% year-to-date. Against the 52-week average of $28.38, 19 analysts formed the average LUV price target of $29.25 per share.

Bitdeer Technologies Group

Known for being more profitable than BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Tether Holdings increased Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ:BTDR) exposure in early August by buying 2 million BTDR shares within the $7.19 to $8.30 per share price range. The largest stablecoin issuer elevated its Bitdeer ownership to 27% of total shares outstanding.

In addition to offering cloud hash rate services, Bitdeer has its own Bitcoin mining infrastructure. This is further diversified with Bitdeer’s ASIC chip development, such as Sealminer Seal02 released in Q3 2024. The chip has energy efficiency of 13.5 J/TH, and is expected to go into mass production by the end of 2024.

With ample cash in hand, Tether Holdings has previously announced plans to invest ~$500 million across Bitcoin mining operations during 2024. This includes Uruguay, Volcano Energy in El Salvador, ZettaHash, German Northern Data AG (ETR:NB2) and Swan Mining. Bitdeer’s exposure constitutes a $100 million stake as a part of Tether’s strategic Bitcoin investments.

In October, Bitdeer released its September report, noting its total hash rate capacity at 17.1 EH/s. Although lower than the year-ago period of 21.2 EH/s, Bitdeer increased self-mining from 7.2 to 8.1 EH/s. Bitdeer has large incoming capacity upgrades ahead. This includes Rockdale’s 100 MW in Texas, Tydal’s 175 MW increase in Norway, 221 MW upgrade on site in Massillon, Ohio, and 500 MW mining site construction in Jigmeling, Bhutan.

All of Bitdeer’s Bitcoin mining capacity pipelines should be completed by the end of 2026. Year-to-date, BTC price is up 51% at $66.8k. At this point, even the Federal Reserve is concerned that Bitcoin may upset the central bank’s plan to implement permanent primary deficits.

Presently priced at $8.22, BTDR stock is down 7.4% year-to-date, which is just above the 52-week average of $7.14 per share. According to WSJ, the median BTDR price target is $14 per share.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.

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