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Calm Markets In A Volatile World

Published 09/22/2017, 09:02 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Market Movers ahead

We expect good news for the ECB in the form of higher inflation and money supply growth. However, inflation is likely to decline again in coming months.

Germany is due to hold a general election on Sunday and is likely to publish upbeat Ifo numbers on Monday.

In the US, the August reading of the Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE, is due out as well as news on consumer sentiment.

The fourth round of Brexit negotiations is scheduled to begin on Monday, after Theresa May's speech today and the Labour Party conference on Sunday.

Chinese PMIs are due for a weakening after being sustained over the summer by high steel production before pollution curbs in the winter.

We expect the pace of decline in unemployment in Norway to have eased but if it has not, this will put pressure on Norges Bank.

Global macro and market themes

Risk premia across asset classes are currently at pre-Lehman lows.

High GDP growth relative to funding costs supports low risk premia.

As US interest rates rise towards the natural rate, financial volatility and risk premia should rise.

We expect this to play out in Q4.

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