CA Core Retail Sales is likely a good release to trade today, especially considering recent strength in CAD since the early December 2017; a strong release might push the USD/CAD pair to a new low, breaking the support below 1.2350 area…
8:30 am CA Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.8%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY CAD 1.4% / SELL CAD 0.4%)
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.9%, a reading of 0.4% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to SELL CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or at least a 1.4% or better is released, I´ll be looking to BUY CAD.
I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: USD/CAD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.
Definition
Our focus is on the CA Core Retail Sales release and not the headline Retail Sales release; Retail Sales releases from Canada is a month on month release, and basically it´s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, and the Core release is the same Retail Sales but excluding most volatile components, Automotive Components, which makes up about 25% and it varies seasonally. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to a better economy, thus better for its currency. And the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look at the actual economy.