Like the previous three days, the S&P 500 futures (ESZ17:CME) meandered through most of Friday’s session, chopping up and down on a ‘narrow’ trading range. Then, late in the day, the futures rallied when the MrTopStep Imbalance Meter (MiM) started to show over $1.5 billion to buy, and ended up $900 million to buy… CNBC said the actual MOC was buy $2 billion. The futures up ticked going into the close, but in Friday’s after market session, the futures traded up to 2499.75 before opening at 2504.50 on yesterday’s 8:30 CT futures open, and then rallied up to 2506.00 around 9:15 CT.
After the early high, the ES sold off a few times down to the vwap, and then made a lower high at 2505.75 around 10:00am CT. From there, the ES sold off down to 2502.00, made another lower high just above the vwap at 2504.50, and then got hit by several small sell programs that pushed the futures down to 2497.75 just before 1:50pm CT.
At 2:00pm CT, the MiM was showing $620 million to buy, and at 2:10 it had backed off to $553 million to buy. After the low, the ES rallied back up to 2501.25, and then pulled back down to 2500.00, as the MiM dropped down to $435 million to buy. Total volume at 2:20pm, including the 160,000 from Globex, was only 875,000. The ES continued up to 2502.75 as the MiM dropped down to $82 million to buy. At 2:45 the actual MOC came out NET Buy $115 million. After a small drop down to the 2501.00 area, the ES traded back up to 2502.00 on the 3:15 futures close.
In the end it was another slow day on a list of many lately. The S&P 500 futures (ESU17:CME) settled at 2502.75, up +5.5 handles, or +0.22%, the Dow Jones futures (YMU17:CBT) settled at 22299, up +80 points, or +0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQU17:CME) settled at 5986.75, down -8.50 points, or -0.14%.
While You Were Sleeping
Overnight, equity markets in Asia traded modestly lower, but were held up by the NIKKEI, which rallied a whopping +1.96%. Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks are trading slightly higher, led by the FTSE, which is up +0.34%.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 futures opened last night’s globex session at 2502.75, and found an early high at 2504.00 just after 9:00pm CT. From there, the ES broke down to 2501.00 before rallying to a new high at 2505.50 at 5:00am CT, and extending the trading range to a mere 4.5 handles. As of 6:45am CT, the last print in the ES is 2504.25, up +1.50 handles, with 115k contracts traded.
In Asia, 7 out of 11 markets closed lower (Shanghai -0.18%), and in Europe 7 out of 12 markets are trading higher this morning (FTSE +0.34%).
Today’s economic includes Housing Starts (8:30 a.m. ET), Current Account (8:30 a.m. ET), Import and Export Prices (8:30 a.m. ET), Redbook (8:55 a.m. ET); Earnings: Lennar (NYSE:LEN) (6:00 a.m. ET), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) (7:00 a.m. ET), Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) (4:05 p.m. ET), FedEx (NYSE:FDX) (4:15 p.m. ET).
Dow Up 7 In A Row And Makes Its 40th Closing High Of The Year
Our View: We have a decent economic schedule this week, and it’s all centered on the FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday. When I spoke to the PitBull, he said the fed has to start paying down the QE money they owe. I understand that, but I don’t think that the ES is going to come crashing down. Can the ES get a 30 or 40 handle pullback? Sure it can, and there is no doubt its what the S&P needs. Is it going to happen this week? I don’t think so, but I do agree it’s long overdue. That said I still think 2520 is in play. Our view is to sell the gap up opens, and look to buy weakness. Sure, you can sell the ‘rallies’, but the golden rule has not changed, the trend is your friend.
PitBull: CLX osc 20/7 turns down on a close below 51.06; ESZ osc 30/16 turns down on a close below 2512.12; VIX osc -17/-8 turns up on a close above 9.86.
