Brent all the same fell through below 46 and closed there last week. Now, the most likely scenario is the trade in the corridor 42-52, in which the price was from April to November last year. It is difficult to say the range 42-44 will be tested immediately or after a rollback to levels 47-48, but in any case, the path to 52 will not be fast, with periodic setbacks down. Resistance at the levels 47-49 and 50-52 will not be broken from the first time.
The reasons for the sheer drop in oil prices over the last month by almost 20% should not be sought in fundamental factors, such as U.S. Crude Oil and petroleum products Inventories, the growth of production in some OPEC countries - Libya and Nigeria, and the increase in production from American shale, etc, etc. Take at least the last Wednesday, June 21. In general, the "bullish" statistics from the US at 17:30, oil pushed from the important support in the 46th level, reached 46.60 dollars per barrel, then returned back, and the sales after a couple of hours was not caused at all Fundamental factors.
As they say, just business is nothing personal. Stockjobbing. All those who put on the turn have lost, but the main battle is yet to come. If the bulls manage to hold the range of 42-44, then they will go into a counteroffensive at 47-48. If it fails and Brent is broken a level of $ 42 per barrel, then on the shoulders of the bulls, bears can reach 35-36 frontiers.