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In a 9/9 interview on CNBC, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and CIO of Doubleline Capital, provided some very useful insights into the recent behavior of the bond market and its implications for Fed policy. He...
U.S. 10-Year Treasuries showed a nice reaction after marking a new contract low early on Friday. The daily trend is still down though. Friday’s upmove offers hope for some technical rebound up to...
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note futures with new contract and cycle low. Resistance @ 124.20, 124.40, 124.60. First support @ 123.80 T-Note futures, daily chart: Original post
One of the striking ironies of our modern economy is that government bonds are considered safe-haven investments, while Gold is a “barbarous relic” to be avoided at all costs. Since the 2008 financial...
The general election in Sweden points towards a change of government from the centre/right "Alliance" towards the Social democratic and Green Party coalition supported by the Left party. We doubt we...
U.S. 10-Year future bear phase to extendWe stated in our last report to clients that “we see downside pressures to still aim lower Friday and through mid-September to the 124-00 retrace level and...
The Pimco High Yield fund (PHDAX) for a period of time around from 1997 to 1999 and 2005 to 2007 found it difficult to move higher, creating a series of level highs. At the same time it created a...
The Power of the Pattern suggested that interest rates were about to blast off in May of 2013, because it looked like a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in yields was in play. What happened...
The interest rate on the 10-Year Treasury Note has moved up a little since the beginning of September. That’s been a reversal of course from this year’s trend. Prior to now, interest rates had headed...
High blood pressure is widely known as “the silent killer” for good reason. This post is a continuation of our post from early August on liquidity in the bond markets. As an RIA managing individual...
When one looks at the yields on very short-term U.S. Government debt, yields on the 2-Year and 5-Year notes are up a big percentage over the past three years. Since 2011, the yield on the 2-year note...
Strategically Shorting Bonds I have been shorting the U.S. 10-Year Treasury strategically the last 6 months, buying the oversold yield conditions right before the employment report ramps up yields. It...
High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) is a term that now applies to the implementation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) in the Basel III Rule. This highly technical mouthful of acronyms and rules...
“If saving money is wrong, I don't want to be right!” - William ShatnerIn a world where bonds and stocks have correlated in an unusually high way, any kind of risk trigger has been...
We've made the case before (see here) that for all the pomp and circumstance, Fed policy over the last three decades has done very little to deviate yields from what became a genuinely symmetrical and...