Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Last year, in the 5/8 Morning Briefing, I discussed nine reasons why yields were falling rather than rising, using the following headings: “Bond shortage,” “Portfolio...

Fed Officials Trying to Send Signals to the Bond Market James Bullard on Friday noted that the Bond Market was far too dovish in relation to where the Fed is in regard to raising rates in June, and...

There are a number of investors and economists who argue that, yield wise, where Japan was, Europe and the US are headed. Most recently they emphasize Europe following Japan more than the US. Although...

The Federal Reserve continues to signal that it will start raising interest rates later this year, according to yesterday’s FOMC statement. But the Treasury market begs to differ. The benchmark...

Ten-year nominal rates continue to drift back towards the 2012 lows; the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields only about 1.75% now. But 2015 is so very different than 2012 in terms of the cause of those low...

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand first formerly targeted inflation rates roughly 25 years ago, other central banks around the globe have followed suit; that is, many banks have been setting...

Bonds have been in a virtually uninterrupted uptrend since New Year’s Eve, 2013. Looking at interest rates, I wonder if we have turned the corner and are heading into higher rates. Examining...

US Treasuries were one of the stories of 2014. Not one pundit or economist surveyed expected them to rise in price in 2014. Yet they did so with a vengeance. If the US dollar or Shanghai Composite did...

Through the use of a dynamic Taylor rule we detect how loose the ECB monetary policy stance should be. Our ECB reaction function, suggests that short-term interest rates should have to be negative and...

As of the end of Monday January 19, 2015, European 10-year yields are as follows: Germany 10-Year bond yields 0.441% France 10-Year bonds yields .641% Spain 10-Year bonds yields 1.526% Switzerland...

Treasury prices were rejected from technical resistance @ 131 on Friday. Holding above 129,50 keeps the bullish scenario intact. The Fed is not in a hurry to increase interest rates as long as oil...

Weekly CFTC COT Net Speculator Report | 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators eased their bearish bets for 2nd week10 Year Treasuries: Large US 10 Year T-Note futures traders...

If it’s true, I’d say bonds are (finally) positioned for a meaningful, sustained fall. I am particularly interested in the similarity of price action vis-a-vis the long-term Fibonacci fan...

The U.S. 30-Year Treasury auction today is likely to price the bonds around 2.50%. During the auction on November 13, 2014, the yield was 3.09%. The price of these bonds is up roughly 10% since then....