Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.
Betting all of your money on Bitcoin,or any other asset, is foolish. Fools are quickly parted from their money on Wall Street, a lesson that many undisciplined crypto-traders could learn in the coming years. Betting a portion of your money during upside alignment (Trip Up or Dbl Up), impulses that generate the bulk of returns for investment holding periods, is smart and disciplined investing.
Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC:GBTC), a proxy for Bitcoin that traded OTC, provides another look at the cyptocurrency.
Downside alignment in the daily trend (chart 1) and misalignment in the secondary trend (chart 2) urges caution for the bulls. Misalignment is defined by a disagreement of sign between LTREV (volume) and LTCO (price). LTREV has fallen below 0%. While smart money has been watching from the safety of the sidelines since 3/9, the date GBTC fell out of triple alignment, it won't short upside alignment in the primary trend (chart 3).
Chart 1 Tertiary Trend
Chart 2 Secondary Trend
Chart 3 Primary Trend
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