Investing.com’s stocks of the week
After a week of mixed market sentiment, macro pressure, and rising geopolitical tensions, all eyes turned to the Fed. And while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.9%, the tone of their projections spoke louder than the decision itself.
Let’s break it down.
The Fed: No Cut Yet, and No Rush Ahead
The June Summary of Economic Projections showed a slower pace of rate normalization than markets had hoped for. Real GDP growth for 2025 was revised down to 1.4%, while unemployment is seen rising to 4.5%, a sign of a cooling labor market.
More importantly, PCE inflation is still at 3.0%, and core PCE at 3.1% also well above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s why policymakers aren’t in a rush. The outlook for 2026 and 2027 shows only slight cuts (to 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively), with 3.0% now considered the long-run rate.
Translation? No pivot and no green light for risk-on behavior just yet.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Fear
The ongoing Middle East tension continues to weigh on markets. European equities pulled back, gold surged briefly, and crypto sentiment remains fragile.
Separately, Donald Trump sent mixed signals on U.S. involvement in the conflict, urging people to “immediately evacuate Tehran.” The market response was quick, oil futures dipped, and investors braced for increased volatility. Analysts warned that any actual U.S. military engagement could trigger a sharp risk-off reaction across equities and crypto.
The Fear & Greed Index now sits at 48, a neutral zone reflecting this uncertainty. And despite total crypto market cap sitting at $3.25 trillion, the Altcoin Season Index is just 23/100 firmly in Bitcoin territory.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Patience vs. Reversal
Bitcoin remains stuck under $105K. This isn’t bullish breakout territory yet. Funding rates are neutral-to-negative, and open interest is steady, but conviction is low.
Ethereum, however, shows more resilience.
Price has repeatedly held around $2,500–$2,520, shrugging off bearish pressure. Funding rates flipped negative briefly before reverting to positive, hinting at exhausted short interest. It’s a classic early reversal signal but it still needs confirmation.
Without strong inflows, it’s just a bounce, not a breakout.
The Setup Going Into Next Week
Here’s the setup in plain terms:
- Fed is holding firm. No cut fuel just yet.
- Inflation is sticky.
- Geopolitics are heating up with potential global implications.
- Crypto is consolidating, but ETH is flashing potential first.
If BTC clears $105K with conviction, we may see momentum return. If not, ETH could quietly rotate higher especially if funding and flows stay aligned.
But with macro pressure building, especially around the Middle East, markets may not get clarity until geopolitics settle, or escalate.
Sentiment Snapshot
- Fear & Greed Index: 48
- Total Market Cap: $3.25 Trillion
- Altcoin Season Index: 23/100 (still Bitcoin-dominant)
Source: Federal Reserve
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Disclosure: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always DYOR, Do Your Own Research.
Cryptocurrencies are subject to high market risk and vulnerability, despite their high growth potential. Users are strongly advised to conduct thorough research and invest at their own risk.