Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Bellus Health: Moving Forward In Rare Diseases

By Edison Stock MarketsMay 13, 2014 03:29AM ET
Bellus Health: Moving Forward In Rare Diseases
By Edison   |  May 13, 2014 03:29AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

Moving forward in rare diseases

BELLUS Health Inc.'s (TO:BLU) lead candidate, Kiacta, is in a pivotal Phase III trial for AA amyloidosis, an orphan drug indication affecting up to 25,000 patients worldwide. We estimate the probability of success at 60%, given positive efficacy trends in a previous Phase II/III study and modifications in the ongoing pivotal study to increase its statistical power and target more responsive patients. We determine an rNPV valuation of C$102m, compared to Bellus’ EV of about C$26m. The potential for premium pricing and a seven- to 10-year exclusivity period underscore the investment case. Bellus is fully funded beyond the Kiacta study results expected in 2016.

Bellus Health Chart
Bellus Health Chart

Pivotal study builds on earlier efficacy trends

In a Phase II/III study, Kiacta showed a 13% lower incidence of “worsening events” vs placebo after 24 months (p=0.06). Under a special protocol assessment with the FDA, Kiacta may obtain regulatory approval if it can show a statistically significant improvement in the time to persistent “worsening events” of kidney function vs placebo in the pivotal study. Given that this study will record nearly double the number of events (120) and that it pre-selects patients with proteinuria (who are more responsive to treatment), the drug should have a greater chance of success.

Auven partnership limits Bellus’s financial burden

Bellus entered a partnership in 2010 with Auven Therapeutics to fund the Phase III study, which started in December 2010 and will enrol approximately 230 patients. As of 26 April 2014, approximately 227 patients have been enrolled; Bellus expects recruitment to be completed in H114, with study completion in 2016. Bellus and Auven will share the proceeds approximately equally from any out-licensing deal(s) on positive completion of the study. We project a US market launch in H217, and that Bellus will be entitled to receive 12.5% of Kiacta sales on approval.

Valuation: rNPV of C$102m reflects upside

Our rNPV of C$102m applies a 12.5% cost of capital and assumes a 60% probability of success of Kiacta in AA amyloidosis and 10% in sarcoidosis (a secondary indication to start Phase II studies in Q414). After including the sarcoidosis opportunity and raising our treatment price forecasts to better reflect the pricing range for conditions with similar prevalence rates, our rNPV increases to $102m (up from $40m previously). Our per-share valuation is C$2.45 (basic) or C$1.85 (fully diluted), including C$14.1m net cash (at 31 March 2014).

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below

Bellus Health: Moving Forward In Rare Diseases

Related Articles

Tim Knight
Could Jig Be Up For Some In Gig Economy? By Tim Knight - May 05, 2021

Looks like some of the stars of the “gig” economy are turning south: Fiverr International Ltd (NYSE:FVRR): LYFT Inc (NASDAQ:LYFT): Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER): Upwork Inc...

Craig Thompson
Is Market Due For A Correction? By Craig Thompson - May 05, 2021 4

Long-term, the stock market is in an uptrend but extended as noted in the chart below, which goes back to 2008. Note how every major pullback has occurred when the index has...

Bellus Health: Moving Forward In Rare Diseases

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email