Next 6-12 months crucial for prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarkets
During Friday’s drop (which the media is characterizing as some kind of historic plunge, even though it was like 1.25%), the levels at which the equity futures slammed on the brakes was quite interesting to me.
For the Emini S&P Futures (ES), I drew a line months ago anchored to the prior lifetime high (red arrow). On Friday, at the worst part of the drawdown, the ES nailed this line almost to the penny and reversed higher (green arrow). It has pretty much undone Friday’s drop already.
The Nasdaq Futures (NQ) pulled almost precisely the same stunt.
The small caps Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) are a horse of a different color. In this instance, instead of obeying a former high as support, it used the Fibonacci. The 76.8% retracement is at 2150, so slip me into a pink taffeta dress and call me Peaches, the low on Friday was 2148.60.
These levels need to break in order for bears to enjoy even a brief victory dance.