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Australia Reports A Record Trade Surplus Despite China's Boycott

By Marc ChandlerForexSep 02, 2021 06:23AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/australia-reports-a-record-trade-surplus-despite-chinas-boycott-200600738
Australia Reports A Record Trade Surplus Despite China's Boycott
By Marc Chandler   |  Sep 02, 2021 06:23AM ET
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The markets were mostly in a holding pattern so far today, ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data, and the PMI services and final composite readings. Equities on balance were firmer, and the dollar softer.

In Asia Pacific, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and India, equities advanced, while, among the large markets, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan slipped. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was posting its first back-to-back gain in a couple of weeks, led by consumer discretionary, industrials, and health care. US futures indices were posting small gains.

The bond market was subdued, with the US 10-year gravitating a little below1.30%. European benchmark rates were 2-3 bp softer. Australia's 2-year continued to flirt with zero, but the Australian dollar, helped by a record trade surplus, was leading the major currencies higher, with the other dollar-bloc currencies in tow.

Higher inflation and the prospects of another rate hike later this year did not help the South Korean won, which was the weakest of the emerging market currencies today. The liquid and freely accessible currencies were higher, helping the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index extend its gains for the fifth consecutive session.

Gold was confined to a narrow $1810-$1816 range, while oil was little changed within yesterday's range. Iron ore slipped for a third session, confirming the end of the six-day rally on Tuesday. Copper steadied after yesterday's 2.2% fall.

Asia Pacific

China has boycotted several of Australia's product groups primarily to protest Canberra's pro-American foreign policy, but its impact remains modest at best. Australia reported a record trade surplus in July of A$12.1 bln. To put it in perspective, consider that this year's trade surplus is averaging nearly A$9.5 bln a month. In the same period last year, the average was A$6.5 bln. The seven-month average in July 2019 was A$5.9 bln and A$1.2 bln in July 2018.

Rising prices helped compensate for some declines in volume, as with iron ore. Coal and natural gas soared. The latter hit a one-month high of A$1.2 bln, a jump of almost 40% for the month. Exports rose 5% on the month, and imports rose by 3%, both of which were stronger than expected.

South Korea reported firmer than expected August CPI, and this keeps another central bank rate hike before the end of the year in view. The  0.6% increase in the headline rate was above forecasts and kept the year-over-year rate unchanged at 2.6%. Many economists had expected a 2.4% pace. The core rate ticked up to 1.8% from 1.7%. The market appeared to be pricing in another 25 bp hike in Q4. 

Tomorrow, China reports the Caixin services and composite PMI. The disappointing "official" PMI warned of downside risks to the Caixin series and underpinned expectations that the PBOC will ease policy formally (reserve ratio reduction?) and informally (promote more targeted credit expansion?).

Japan and Australia see their final PMI readings. Recall that the preliminary reports showed both composites below the 50 boom/bust level. Japan has reported one reading above 50 since January 2020. For Australia, August was the second consecutive reading below 50, and it might be sufficient to steady the central bank's hand from tapering its bond purchases. The RBA meets next week.

The dollar was straddling JPY110.00. It barely moved more than 10-pips away from it. The five and 20-day moving averages converge just below. Relevant option expirations today were minor, but tomorrow, there are options for almost $1.3 bln at JPY110 that expire. Still, given the proximity to the US jobs report that often injects volatility into the market, we suspect the options have been neutralized.

The Australian dollar finished last week slightly above $0.7310, and it was approaching $0.7400. A band of resistance was seen in the $0.7405-$0.7425 area. The intraday momentum studies were stretched, and new highs may not be sustained in North America.

The Chinese yuan traded mostly within yesterday's range but softened within it, falling for the first time in five sessions, if one can call a 0.03% decline a fall. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.4594, compared with the median in Bloomberg's survey for CNY6.4584.

Europe

Seven months after Joseph Biden became the US president and the odorous steel and aluminum tariffs on national security grounds remain in place against Europe. The Trump administration bequeathed a chit to Biden's team for which it was trying to extract the biggest concession. The EU has suspended escalating its retaliation until November. Reports suggested the Biden administration was mulling quotas, which Europe was likely to resist. However, the fact that the protectionism was being done in the name of national security was difficult to object to at the WTO.

The eurozone's July PPI rose by 2.3%, well above expectations, and appears to be the largest monthly increase on record. Excluding energy, produce prices still rose 1% on the month. The only large category that showed a decline in prices was non-durable goods. The eurozone sees the final PMI tomorrow. The flash reading of the composite fell for the first time since January from its cyclical high in July of 60.2 to 59.5. It also will report July retail sales, where Germany's missed (-5.1% vs. -1.0% forecasted) and France's consumer spending dropped (-2.2% vs. 0.2% expected) underscored the downside risks.

The euro was confined to the upper end of yesterday's range (~$1.1795-$1.1855) and has not been below $1.1835. If sustained, it will be the first session since Aug. 5 that it has remained above $1.1800. The next big target is $1.19, and the euro has not closed above it since late June and has only traded above it once. The euro has risen in the past four sessions and was struggling to sustain the upside momentum in what could be the fifth consecutive advance.

Sterling recovered from a three-day low near $1.3730 yesterday, but the $1.3800 cap continued to hold. It reached a two-week high near $1.3808 on Tuesday but has not closed above $1.3800 since Aug. 16. There are options at $1.3815-$1.3820  for about GBP730 mln that expire tomorrow.

America

Although we argue that the ADP private-sector job estimate does a poor job tracking private-sector job growth in the non-farm payroll report on a month-to-month basis (though it is considerably better in the medium term), some economists think otherwise. The new contributions to the Bloomberg survey made yesterday were all weaker than the prevailing median.

The median expectation for private-sector job growth now sits at 610k, down from 700k at the end of last week. The median forecast for the headline was at 725k, well off the 943k reported in July and the 938k reported in June. This shows economists recognize that job growth slowed in August. Only three of the 65 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey look for more than 900k.

Still, ahead of tomorrow's employment report, a full slate of US economic reports is due. Weekly initial jobless claims are expected to have fallen after last week's (for the week ending Aug. 20) unexpectedly rose (slightly, 4k). July factory orders are new too, and a 0.3% increase is expected at a 1.5% gain in June. The preliminary durable goods orders were already reported, so today is the final estimate.

Similarly, July's advanced goods trade balance has also been reported, so today's overall trade report contains little new information. The same could be said for unit labor costs and productivity reports. These are derived from the Q2 GDP report.

Lastly, we note that August auto sales were dismal. At 13.06 mln vehicles as a seasonally-adjusted annual rate, it was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since last June. This is likely to filter into other high-frequency data points, including retail sales and personal consumption expenditures.

Canada reports its merchandise trade balance. The disruption of the auto sector and fewer railcar loadings will be evident as the trade surplus is expected to be nearly halved from June's C$3.2 bln surplus. Canada also sees July building permits. They are forecast to slow from the heady 6.9% surge in June.

Mexico reports domestic vehicle sales today and July leading economic indicators. These do not typically move the markets. Brazil sees July industrial output figures, and a 0.7% decline is expected after a flat June report. Finally, note that Moody's cut Peru's rating to Baa1 (= BBB+ at S&P and Fitch), citing political risk. The outlook was cut to negative from stable.

For the fourth session, the US dollar was hovering around CAD1.26 and continued to trade within Tuesday's range (~CAD1.2570-CAD1.2655). The intraday momentum studies gave little reason to expect a break today. More like it comes tomorrow with the US employment report.

While the Canadian dollar is going sideways, the Mexican peso was trending higher. In fact, the peso was extending its advancing streak for the fifth consecutive session today. The greenback settled below MXN20.00 yesterday for the first time since Aug. 16. The next important chart point for the dollar was near MXN19.85, the low from Aug. 16.

The Brazilian real's three-day rally, the longest in over a month, ended yesterday, with a 0.65% setback. Look for it to be better bid today.

Australia Reports A Record Trade Surplus Despite China's Boycott
 

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Australia Reports A Record Trade Surplus Despite China's Boycott

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