The feel-good factor stayed alive through the Asia session, as both commodity and equity market continues to march along in a worry-free manner supported by the prospect of the central bank' printing presses rolling out an endless supply of cheap money forever. Plus the glimmer of hope offered up over the US-China trade dispute didn't hurt matters.
Currency Markets
Although the pace of play slowed considerably from a scintillating overnight risk on the session overnight, EUR and JPY continue to struggle, and Commodity FX remained bolstered by the higher oil price. Given the paring of oversold, AUD and NZD were the winners with high beta currency being favoured by systematic strategies. But the Won was a big winner as KRW certainly helped along by news that US President how effective will an additional 0.1% cut be? Trump and Chinese President Xi will resume trade talks at the G20.
Ok, so it back to the memories of” whatever it takes” for the ECB, but I wish they would lay their cards on the table and signal what levers they are going to pull as how effective will an additional 0.1% cut be? If funny, I was arguing at dinner with a few trading colleagues how ineffective a 25-basis point cut with US rates already so low, so you get the picture what I think of 10 basis point cut. What the ECB need is a return to QE which seems the most logical tool to bolster the economy and weaken the euro given they have no wiggle room to influence the economy through traditional policy means, so we remain much better seller on rallies but prepared to add to shorts on a convincing break of 1.170
No change in my oil and gold views.
Oil markets
Commodity market was in the dire ad of some central bank stimulus; they now appear to be getting just what the doctor ordered. And while I would feel better if the Pboc joined the race to the bottom, but the trifecta of the RBA, ECB and Fed preparing for a deep dive, the later the market's view, oil and commodities, in general, should remain in a party-hearty mood.