Breaking News
0

As The Markets Sell-Off, Precious Metals Rebound

By Steve St. AngeloCommoditiesOct 12, 2018 01:52AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/as-the-markets-selloff-the-precious-metals-rebound-200348118
As The Markets Sell-Off, Precious Metals Rebound
By Steve St. Angelo   |  Oct 12, 2018 01:52AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off. Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday. The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25.

However, even though we could see a late-day rally in the markets, and even higher stock indexes over the next few months, the bear market for stocks is still coming. The Dow Jones Index has now suffered two large sell-offs in the past ten months:

Dow Jones
Dow Jones

In January, the Dow Jones Index fell by more 3,000 points, and the current correction is only one-half of that amount. So, I expect to see a continued correction over the next month. Because October is the worst month for market Crashes, this could be one hell of a blow for not only the economy but also, for investor confidence.

For example, according to the Zerohedge article, Used-Car Prices Plunge Most In 15 Years:

CPI Used Cars & Trucks MoM
CPI Used Cars & Trucks MoM

Looking deeper at the core inflation print, it reflected a 3% monthly drop in prices for used cars and trucks following increases in each of the last 3 months, and the biggest drop in 15 years…

And then, of course, the continued disintegration of the U.S. Retail Market, Sears Creditors Push For Bankruptcy Liquidation As Vendors No Longer Paid:

Amid recent reports that Sears is set to file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend ahead of a $134 million debt payment due on Monday, the only question is whether the filing will be a Chapter 11 debt for equity reorganization or a Chapter 7 liquidation. And contrary to the desires of Sears CEO and biggest creditor, Eddie Lampert, who would like to preserve the core business, others are pushing for an outright liquidation.

According to the WSJ, a group of Sears’ biggest lenders, including Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)., Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) & Co. and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C)., are pushing for the company to liquidate its assets under a chapter 7 bankruptcy filing, as opposed to reorganizing the business under chapter 11, this person said.

Interestingly, Sear’s major lending institutions (Blank of American, Wells Far-gone & CitiCorpse) are pushing for a complete bankruptcy liquidation rather than a reorganization. I gather they believe the “brick and mortar” retail industry is likely heading for the dustbin as the Amazon’s of the world takeover. I can assure you that “Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Economy” won’t last for much longer especially when the U.S. economy and shale oil industry collapse.

Don’t Expect The Precious Metals To Sell-off With The Markets

As I mentioned in several articles and videos, the precious metals will likely RALLY during the major market correction. And we are seeing evidence of that today. Gold is up over $20 and Silver, $0.23:

Dow Jones
Dow Jones

When I did this chart, the Dow Jones Index was only down 100 points but is now down more than 200. So, why aren’t the precious metals selling off with the broader markets as they did in 2008? The reason for the rally in gold and silver is because the precious metals have continued to trend lower over the past six years while the broader markets climbed higher. Thus, they have already “SOLD-OFF.”

Now, I am not saying that gold and silver can’t spike lower, but according to market sentiment and the COT Report, the precious metals are closer to a LOW while the broader markets are still trader near their HIGHS… even with the last two-day correction.

Once the major stock indexes head into a sustained bear market, you can count on investors “ROTATING” out of stocks and real estate and into the precious metals and the gold and silver miners. I expect the precious metals and miners to be one of the HOTTEST in the entire market during this time.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Hitting Major Resistance Level

Due to the fact that investors trade based on technical analysis, the 10-year U.S. Treasury just hit a KEY LEVEL:

UST10Y Monthly Chart
UST10Y Monthly Chart

As we can see, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate has hit up against its 200 Month Moving Average (MMA, in RED). Typically, it will bounce off this and head lower, but if it doesn’t, then it could spike even higher. We must remember, higher interest rates aren’t good for the U.S. Government’s ability to service its debt.

In my previous article I posted the 2018 fiscal interest expense for the U.S. Government debt:

Interest Expemse Fiscal Year 2018
Interest Expemse Fiscal Year 2018

The U.S. Treasury had to fork out an additional $65 billion of interest in 2018 versus 2017. The annual interest expense jumped from $458 billion in 2017 to $523 billion in 2018. That’s nearly a 15% interest expense increase in just one year. If the average interest rate for U.S. debt only increased to 3%, up from the 2.3% currently, its interest expense would balloon to $648 billion, based on $21.6 trillion of debt.

So, as we can see, the fundamentals for the U.S. economy and market are in serious trouble. I imagine President Trump, the Fed Chairman, and U.S. Treasury Secretary will do all in their power to keep the markets from imploding, but eventually, the fundamentals kick in. And when they do… they will do so in a BIG WAY.

Lastly, while the gold and silver miners are still wholly out-of-favor with most investors, don’t be surprised to see serious gains over the next several years as the broader markets head into the toilet. I know this sounds counter-intuitive, but there just won’t be much for investors to protect wealth during the next major downturn.

For example, First Majestic Silver is now coming off its lows of $5.00:

AG
AG

While First Majestic (NYSE:AG) reached a high of $25 in 2011, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at least five times higher during the next bull market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I just picked First Majestic as an example of the primary silver miners market. So, do not trade or make any investment decision based on this information. Do you own due diligence before making and investment decisions.

However, common sense tells us that the past ten years of propping up the markets with more paper money and debt will not bode well for most stocks, bonds, and real estate. Gold and silver have been stores of wealth for thousands of years even though the typical investor has been hoodwinked by Wall Street and the Central Bankers.

Original post

As The Markets Sell-Off, Precious Metals Rebound
 

Recommended

As The Markets Sell-Off, Precious Metals Rebound

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Oct 12, 2018 5:21AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Sound,, but would they let markets fall, or engage in more policy loosening and prop up stocks again ? ,,, precious metals were not supposed to go down between 2016 -2018 when tightening began, and stocks were not supposed to go up either,, so going to be an uphill battle ..
Reply
0 0
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email