Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

ADP Estimates An Increase Of 517,000 Jobs, Yet The Bond Market Didn't Budge

Published 04/01/2021, 01:55 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

While the ADP forecasts a gain of 512,000 private jobs in Friday's jobs report for March, the bond market didn't budge at all on the news.

ADP Employment Report

Hot and Cold

ADP forecasts run hot and cold as measured by prediction vs. actual results. But this time the ADP forecast and the consensus estimates for the BLS report essentially match.

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate for ADP was 500,000 jobs in a range of 260,000 to 775,000.

The consensus estimate for the BLS jobs report itself is 625,000 in a range of 439,000 to 1,000,000.

Other Predictions

Robin Brooks Tweet

Predicting Predictions

The 500,000 consensus estimate for the forecast nearly matched the 517,000 number ADP did forecast.

Does anyone else find it amusing to be predicting predictions?

Bond Market Reaction

Setting aside philosophical questions regarding predicting predictions, 517,000 would be a very strong report that could easily have had an impact on the bond market.

Instead, yields didn't budge.

Is a strong jobs market already priced into bond?

Original Post

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.