Last week we wrote about the inevitable bullish fundamentals for gold.
Recent events that followed our editorial signal that the inevitable is moving closer to imminent.
Due to bank failures, a pending hard landing, and the like, the Federal Reserve will have to cease its rate hikes and ease policy amid not moderate but relatively high inflation.
Markets may recover for a little while in response to immediate policy actions. Gold’s sudden rebound could pause.
However, we know where this is ultimately going. In the meantime, you should watch three important indicators to get a feel for gold’s short-term momentum and outlook.
1. Gold's Battle With a Crucial Resistance
The first is how gold performs around resistance at $1950, which is weekly, monthly, and quarterly resistance.
If gold can close March above $1953, it will mark the highest quarterly close ever and the highest monthly close in almost three years. It would also mark the third-highest monthly close in history.
2. Gold's Performance Against Stocks
The thing to watch for is gold’s performance against the stock market. Gold against the stock market made its third-highest close in the last two years.
3. Gold Vs. Foreign Currencies
Last but not least is gold’s performance against foreign currencies. The yellow metal's performance against the stock market and its performance against foreign currencies usually lead to or signal future moves in the gold price.
On Wednesday, gold against the foreign currency basket made its second-highest close ever. If and when both charts surpass and hold above the red lines (arrows), gold should be on its way to the August 2020 high.
If gold cannot surpass $1950 and the stock market plunges, silver and mining stocks could get hit one last time.
On the other hand, if gold can break $1950-$2000 relatively soon, then the gold stocks and silver will follow. They will strongly outperform when gold breaks $2100.