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UK GDP Better Than Expected, Pound Pushing Higher

Published 10/27/2016, 11:29 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Plenty of activity today, with the data and events schedule skewed to the early part of the session. Starting with the UK growth data, Q3 GDP came in at a better than expected +0.5%, compared to the consensus +0.3%. YoY came in at 2.3% vs 2.1% and we saw GBP pushing higher, but facing up against continued sentiment based selling, with EUR/GBP buying ahead of .8900 largely behind this.

Month end flow sees large European buying of the cross rate, and this may also have to be factored in, but between 1.2250 and 1.2330 we note plenty of offers waiting to pick off any rallies. Adding to the positive news for the UK, was a strong CBI distributive trades index, along with reports of continued UK presence/investment (Nissan).

Scepticism ahead of Article 50 will continue to stamp on gains in the meantime. Adding to the pressure on Cable was a widespread USD demand, with US yields rising to fresh cycle highs. Much of this came through USD/JPY, which eventually took out 105.00, but there is plenty more selling interest through here to slow gains going forward. AUD and CAD have been under the cosh through the day, more so the former as we have taken out .7600. It has been one way traffic since .7700, but the selling has slowed up a little since.

Focus now on 1.3400 in USD/CAD with the pair holding a tight range ahead of 1.3350 through the day, with NZD above .7100 throughout. EUR/USD has fared well since breaking back above 1.0900, with traders buying dips despite the USD perspective. Oversold levels have been threatening a squeeze, as has the drop in Bunds.

Both the Norges ban and Riksbank held policy unchanged at their respective meetings, but the latter suggested QE extension on Dec along with further possible rate cuts to put fresh pressure on the SEK. NOK/SEK is now eyeing 1.1000 after a very brief test of 1.0700. A big day for data on Friday, headlined by the Q3 US GDP release, which may put the bullish USD view to the test if we fail to match expectations.

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