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10 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Market Drop Only A Matter Of Time

By Michael KramerStock MarketsNov 22, 2021 12:46AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/10-monster-stock-market-predictions-market-drop-only-a-matter-of-time-200609070
10 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Market Drop Only A Matter Of Time
By Michael Kramer   |  Nov 22, 2021 12:46AM ET
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Despite being shortened by Thanksgiving on Thursday and a half-day on Friday, it will be a busy week. The big data point will come on Wednesday afternoon with the release of the November Fed minutes.

Based on comments from Richard Clarida this past Friday, it seems likely that there will be some discussion in the minutes about increasing the pace of the tapering process at the December meeting. Now, considering the Fed has already pre-announced the December tapering schedule, any changes to the speed will likely occur in January. But still, it will give the market something to think about between Wednesday and Dec. 15.

A faster taper should result in an even stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions, ultimately negative stocks. Whether that is felt right away on Wednesday is not the point; the implications look well beyond the end of this year. At this point, it seems like it is only a matter of when the market drops. (Premium content for download.)

1. Dollar

If the DXY moves above 96.30 this week, it will be well on its way to 97.70. Very few give me credit for my calls on the dollar or rates. Therefore I will give credit to myself. Good call on the dollar :). Very few, if anyone was looking for a stronger dollar, and a stronger dollar is what we now have.

USD Index Daily Chart
USD Index Daily Chart

2. High Yields - Junk ETF

The SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:JNK) shows the effects of some of those tighter conditions. The ETF is now sitting on a critical level of support of $108.09, with a break of that support triggering a much larger move down, potentially back to the March 2021 lows.

JNK Daily Chart
JNK Daily Chart

3. High Yields - iBoxx ETF

Over the past few days, we have seen the same thing in the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:HYG).

HYG Daily Chart
HYG Daily Chart

4. S&P 500 ETF

It may even be worse than that. Based on data from FINRA, every full day of trading since Nov. 9 shows the number of high yield bonds declining has been higher than the number of high yield bonds advancing. It speaks to just how severe the weakness in that part of the market is.

The high yield ETF has a positive correlation to the SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) overall, and if the HYG is breaking down, it may serve as a warning sign overall for the S&P 500.

SPY ETF Daily Chart
SPY ETF Daily Chart

5. S&P 500 Futures

I haven’t changed my wave count yet. Maybe I should, but I will give it one more day. I’m waiting for the market to force me to change the count, and to this point, it hasn’t forced my hand yet. The RSI is turning lower, the MACD has turned lower, and the advance-decline line has turned decidedly lower. These are negative indications, and all of it continues to support that move lower I have been looking for to 4,590.

S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart
S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

6. Russell 2000 Index

Meanwhile, the big iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) breakout that everyone was excited about two weeks ago has failed miserably and is now in serious trouble. The index is currently trading below the March highs, with an RSI on the verge of breaking its uptrend, along with a MACD indicator that has turned firmly negative.

IWM Daily Chart
IWM Daily Chart

7. Amazon

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) had a significant Intraday reversal on Friday after starting sharply higher and finishing sharply lower. Everything about this chart and company screams of danger. It seems the only positives around the company are its investment in Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), and if that’s the case, the rally is likely to fizzle as quickly as it is started.

The business fundamentals are not strong, with costs rising all around them, likely eating away at margins. The stock has been a range-bound, dead money investment for more than a year, and until something meaningful changes here, my opinion shall not change; dead money, it shall remain.

AMZN 1-Hr Chart
AMZN 1-Hr Chart

8. Meta Platforms (Formerly Facebook)

The Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) inverse Head And Shoulders pattern may be the continuation type after all. As it would seem over the past week, a pennant pattern has now formed, which is likely to take the stock sub-$300.

FB 1-Hr Chart
FB 1-Hr Chart

If you want to play the Metaverse, Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) seems like the best option at this point. The kids love it. My kids get their allowance in Robux. Now Nike (NYSE:NKE) has a virtual presence on the platform as well. I bought this stock a few weeks back now for my portfolio, and I am as excited about this stock as I was about Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and YouTube years ago; that is the type of influence it has on this younger generation.

RBLX Daily Chart
RBLX Daily Chart

9. Roku

Suddenly, the sell-side is seeing the same thing I have been saying about Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) over the past 2 to 3 years. There is nothing special there. Even at $220, this stock is overvalued. At best, based on 2023 revenue estimates of $5 billion, it’s worth at best $150, and at worst, 35 times 2023 earnings estimates of $3.40 or $119.

Roku will eventually become the TiVo of this generation. If you don’t know what TiVo is, look it up. The charts even look similar, with those big double tops. The shareholder base hasn’t been very friendly over the years, so I wish them luck.

ROKU Weekly Chart
ROKU Weekly Chart

10. Chipolte Mexican Grill

It looks like Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) is ready to make a move lower to fill the gap at $1575.


CMG Daily Chart
CMG Daily Chart

Original Post

10 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Market Drop Only A Matter Of Time
 

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10 Monster Stock Market Predictions: Market Drop Only A Matter Of Time

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Comments (4)
Ayumastura PinkLady
Ayumastura PinkLady Dec 01, 2021 12:16AM ET
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thanks for ur analysis on meta. I didnt see the continuation before but lucky i read ur article and manage to sell at resistant with 1k profit. hahaha
ZM Qi
ZM Qi Nov 22, 2021 6:39AM ET
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I wonder what happened to your perforio, namely what's the performance
Chris Johnson
Chris Johnson Nov 22, 2021 6:34AM ET
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Great analysis - thanks
Gershom Zvi
Gershom Zvi Nov 22, 2021 2:33AM ET
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You was wrong about NVIDIA last time
 
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