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Forex Technical Analysis

 
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Uk economic data came out better than expected across the board, the UK inflationary figures 1.6% rather than the 1.4% predicted.   This data particularly could see an ending to the quantitative easing program and thus see a return to the risk aversion trades once again.  Whilst the RICS house prices from the UK gave the pound its boost, gains now given back with the pound following the euro as worse than expected ZEW figures from Germany's hitting the risks in early European trading.  With added comments from BoE's governor King stating that they are looking to reduce the interest paid on bank deposits, sterling remains under threat for a further drop towards 1.6480 ahead of the 3 month 61.8% ret level of 1.6390/00.  The trade war between China and the US affecting the US equity futures which are looking for a lower open at time of writing assisting the strength of the greenback.  The US retail figures out later this afternoon are due to come out better than expected giving further momentum to the strength of the dollar.
 
Cable trading at 1.65 at time of writing, having come off the highs of 1.6660 having seen a 'double top' during mid morning trading.  Economic data has come out better than expected though as mentioned, the 'King" comments now weighing on sterling along with the expectation that US retail figures come out better than expected.  With stocks starting to head higher along with the oil and gold prices, expect a move back up to the 1.6530 level before direction re confirmed.  Support at 1.6480 ahead of 1.6450.  Should momentum continue, the next major support now seen at 1.64.  Resistance at 1.6530 (50% ret level for the week) ahead of the 38.2% level at 1.6580.  The US retails the key for early US trading direction.
 
The euro trading off its highs of 1.4648/50 at 1.4620 at time of writing, the German ZEW figures lowering the single currency.  Should Eurodollar drop below and hold 1.4580, expect a move back to 1.4560/65 ahead of the 38.2% fib ret level for the week at 1.4520.  Resistance at 1.4620/25 ahead of 1.4650/60 (having now had three attempts over the last 24 hours).  Favoring further downside pressure in early US trading, however, the US retail figures out later this afternoon the key for today's direction.
 
The Yen is still being sold off against the dollar and the euro, however higher against the pound.  Chinas trade war with the US the major influencing factor to Yen weakness over the last 24 hours.  A plateauing seen at time of writing, now looking for direction at the US open.  Support at 91 ahead of 90.90.  Resistance at 91.30 (38.2% fib level) ahead of the 50% at 91.65 for the weeks trading.
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