By Axel Bugge and Andrei Khalip
LISBON (Reuters) - The Portuguese voted in a national election on Sunday with polls predicting another win for their austerity-minded, center government that guided them through an economic crisis, though it could fall short of an outright majority.
Minority government has a dismal history in Portugal and many worry such an outcome could endanger Portugal's fledgling economic recovery.
The general election is the first since Portugal exited an international bailout last year. The latest polls, released on Friday, gave Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's ruling coalition a lead of between five and 12 points over center Socialist opponent Antonio Costa.
But if Passos Coelho, whose government introduced deep spending cuts and the biggest tax hikes in living memory, fails to secure more than the around 38 percent that he has polled in recent days, he will fall short of an absolute majority in the 230-seat parliament.
"I'm confident in the job I've done ... It's a day of hope because the next four years will be very different from the past four," a composed Passos Coelho told reporters after voting on the outskirts of Lisbon, urging people to leave their homes to vote despite poor weather.
Portugal's economy returned to timid growth last year after a three-year recession and growth is now accelerating.
Paulo Portas, deputy prime minister and head of the junior coalition partner CDS, said that the Portuguese were voting "with reconquered freedom" after leaving behind the demanding bailout program that imposed painful austerity.
Waiting outside a polling station in a school in central Lisbon, Nuno Bras, a 45-year-old office worker, said he was not happy with the government, but that it was "a better option than to risk undoing the recovery that has only just begun."
"Another crisis would be fatal for us. The economy is finally growing a bit now, I don't know if it's really the government's merit, but I think they are now more experienced and qualified to run the country than the opposition."
Costa, the former mayor of Lisbon, has promised to ease austerity measures and give more disposable income back to families. He had about 33 percent support in the latest polls.
"For a very long time we have not had an election where every vote is so decisive for our future," Costa said after casting his ballot outside of Lisbon.
He looked cheerful, telling reporters he is "very confident about the Socialists' result, about the ambition of the people to have a new cycle of hope after these dreary years."
Some analysts do not rule out a last-minute upset for either side.
Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (0300 ET) and the first exit polls are due around 8 p.m.
Some 15 percent of voters were still undecided, according to opinion polls on Friday.
Adelino Maltez, a political analyst at the Lisbon Technical University, said "there is a possibility of confusion" if there is a very close result that gives no strong victory to any side.
No minority government has survived through its full term since Portugal returned to democracy in 1974. The last Socialist minority government collapsed in 2011 after having to request the bailout.
A victory for the center government goes against the trend seen in other southern European countries, like Spain and Greece, which have tended to punish austerity-minded governments in the past few years.
But even if Costa loses, a left-wing majority in parliament could result in significant upheaval.
"In contrast to the past four years, the domestic political backdrop is set to become less stable, complicating the adoption of economic policies," Antonio Barroso, senior vice president of Teneo Intelligence consultants, wrote in a pre-election note.