Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Risk plays roar back as Clinton's prospects brighten

Published 11/07/2016, 07:20 AM
Updated 11/07/2016, 07:20 AM
© Reuters. Investors look at computer screens showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON (Reuters) - Stocks and the dollar posted their biggest gains in weeks on Monday after the FBI said it stood by a recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Hillary Clinton.

The news lifted a cloud over the Democrat's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election and put Wall Street firmly on track to snap a nine-day losing streak - its longest in more than 35 years.

Asian stocks excluding Japan rose 0.8 percent, European stocks were up almost 1.5 percent and U.S. futures pointed to a rise of 1.4 percent at the open. That would be the biggest rise in two months.

Many of the safe-haven assets that had performed so strongly last week when polls showed Republican candidate Donald Trump closing the gap turned the other way. Gold, bonds and the Swiss franc all fell on Monday.

Europe's index of leading 300 shares rose 1.5 percent , the strongest rally in seven weeks, with a 2.5 percent rise in financials leading the way. Britain's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX were up 1.6 percent.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.8 percent, its biggest rise in three weeks. Japanese shares rose 1.2 percent, the biggest rise in seven weeks.

One of the biggest winners was the Mexican peso, which has acted as something of a bellwether of sentiment as Trump's proposed policies are considered deeply negative for the country. It rose almost 2 percent to a 1-1/2 week high of 18.70 per dollar.

Investors had been unnerved by signs of a tightening presidential race.

Trump's stance on foreign policy, trade and immigration has unnerved financial markets, while Clinton is seen as the status quo candidate.

VOLATILITY INDEX SINKS

The shift in sentiment was reflected by the steep fall in anticipated market volatility. The VIX index, dubbed the "fear index" of U.S. stocks, posted its biggest one-day fall in over four months. That followed a record stretch of nine consecutive daily increases.

"If Clinton wins we could see a continued recovery in risky assets like stocks and the Mexican peso. There could be another sell-off in gold and U.S. Treasuries, pushing up bond yields, which could also be dollar-positive," said Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at City Index.

Gold, which also rose every day last week to a one-month high above $1,300 an ounce, fell 1.3 percent, its biggest drop in over a month, to $1,282.

The latest election news also allowed investors to shift some of their focus back to U.S. economic fundamentals, and the likelihood of an interest rate hike next month after a government report on Friday showed solid jobs gains and a rise in wages in October.

Bond prices retreated as risk appetite surged across the board. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were up 3 basis points at 1.82 percent, benchmark euro zone yields were up 2 basis points at 0.15 percent and UK yields were up 3 basis points at 1.16 percent .

Bond yields were off earlier highs though. Although markets cheered the prospect of a Clinton win, they still carry scars from getting Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union membership so wrong in June.

"Markets are edging towards Clinton largely because of polling and we saw in the Brexit referendum how wrong that can be," said Luke Hickmore, senior fixed income fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

"The memory of that referendum should loom large in investors' memories because so much of the polling was wrong then."

In the currency market, the dollar jumped 1.2 percent against the yen to 104.35 yen, its biggest rise in a month, while the euro dropped 0.7 percent to $1.1060 .

The Swiss franc fell around 1 percent against the dollar to 0.98 per dollar, its biggest fall since late August.

Oil prices rose, with traders citing opportunistic buying following sharp declines in the previous week on weak fundamentals.

© Reuters. Investors look at computer screens showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai

Brent crude oil futures were trading at $46.22 per barrel, up 1.4 percent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 1.7 percent at $44.80 a barrel.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.