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Forex - AUD/USD rises ahead of monthly trade data

Published 02/05/2014, 06:26 PM
Updated 02/05/2014, 06:30 PM

Investing.com – AUD/USD rose in the morning Asian trade on Thursday ahead of Australia’s trade balance and retail sales data due.

Australia's December trade data, retail sales and the NAB's Q4 business survey is due at 1130 (0030 GMT). The trade balance for December is expected to show a higher deficit of A$300 million after A$118 million deficit in November. Retail sales for December are expected to rise 0.4%, slowing from a 0.7% rise in November.

In Japan MOF's weekly international transactions in securities data is expected at 0850 Tokyo (2350 GMT). Last week's data showed that for the week ended Jan 25, Japanese investors sold a net Y152.7 billion in foreign stocks and sold a net Y357.0 billion in foreign bonds.

MOF will also release the 30-year JGB auction results at 1245 (0345 GMT). The MOF is due to auction Y500 billion of 30-year bonds today.

At 1030 (0130 GMT), BOJ Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata is due to speak to business leaders in Miyazaki City, southern Japan and hold a news conference from 1400 to 1430 (0500 to 0530 GMT). The BOJ will release his speech at around 1110 (0210 GMT). Focus is likely to be on Iwata's comments on recent global financial market turbulence and its impact on the BOJ's baseline scenario of achieving stable 2% inflation in about two years from April 2013, when the bank launched aggressive easing.

Markets in China remain closed for the weeklong lunar New Year holidays, and are due to reopen Friday.

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USD/JPY rose 0.03% at 101.48, AUD/USD was up 0.17% at 0.8925, while NZD/USD rose 0.15% at 0.8225.

On Wednesday the greenback traded mixed to lower against most major currencies after lackluster data left markets unclear over the pace of U.S. recovery.

The greenback softened though it did come off earlier lows after the Institute for Supply Management reported that its services purchasing managers’ index came in at 54.0 in January, up from 53.0 in December.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 53.7.

The employment component of the index rose to its highest level since November 2010.

The data eased concerns over a possible slowdown in U.S. recovery after Monday’s ISM manufacturing index showed that activity slumped to a seven-month low in January, which was partially the product of rough winter weather.

Elsewhere, payroll processor ADP reported that private-sector non-farm payrolls rose by 175,000 in December, below expectations for an increase of 180,000, which weakened the dollar.

Losses were limited, though, as investors concluded that a string of blizzards and bitter cold snaps may have prompted businesses to put off hiring early this year.

Friday’s official U.S. jobs report is expected to show that jobs growth rebounded in January after unseasonably cold weather in December kept gains down to 74,000.

Lackluster economic indicators reminded investors that the Federal Reserve will trim its USD65 billion monthly bond-buying program on a gradual basis, or even leave it on hold if need be, while policy tightening remains far off on the horizon.

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Stimulus tools tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing interest rates to spur recovery.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 81.16.

On Thursday, the U.S. is to publish data on its trade balance as well as its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

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